Youth rises & IPD Value

As the clock struck 12 last night, traders started to plough into Rayan Cherki, taking his price from £5.46 up to £5.81 by 1AM.


Cherki has been gathering momentum in recent weeks and as a few big traders starting piling into him, the fear of missing out was too strong for many and his price surged upwards.


Alongside Cherki showing immense potential and quality when he has gained minutes for Lyon, Cherki's price rose last night for a number of reasons:

  • Lyon now have 5 fixtures within the 30 day IPD period

  • Depay's increasingly likely departure could lead to more Cherki gametime

  • Marketing campaigns could lead to more demand for breakthrough talents this month

  • Full order books system leading to more confidence and optimism for the future of FI

Is Rayan Cherki still worth buying?


Given what we currently know about Cherki and how proven he is, Cherki is undoubtely one of the most risky holds on the platform at his current, high price.


However, in Cherki's brief cameos he has consistently looked a class above not just other player his age, but many opponents in senior games. Cherki has excellent ball control, agility and his skillful dribbling ability combined with his vision and intelligence at such a young age suggests that he could very possibly become world-class.


Overall, Cherki's ceiling is incredibly high and given his ability and potential at such a young age - he may well still be worth buying. However, his success as a hold in the short-term will largely depend on whether Depay and Aouar stay at Lyon or move on, opening opportunities up for Cherki.


Cherki's impact on the market


Cherki's price has had a knock-on effect on a number of other young players who have the potential to become world-class.

Fabio Silva moving to Wolves, Bellingham scoring for England U21's, Foden starting for the England national side and transfer rumours circling Camavinga are leading to a number of high quality, under 20's to surge up in price.


Not all young, emerging talents will make it. But, as we have seen with the likes of Jadon Sancho, for those who do make it to the very top - huge rewards in the form of dividends and capital appreciation can be earnt.

Sancho's price, currently sitting at £14.75, sets the bar high and drags other quality, young player's prices upwards. But, it is worth remembering how Sancho has earned £2.69 in dividends compared to the total combined £0.08 in dividends earned by the 5 players above.


The future prospects are very bright for the above players, but it is worth pointing out how unproven they are compared to some young players who have already proven their ability to earn dividends.


Where is the value at the moment?


As mentioned in the Football Index Club Daily Podcast, in recent blogs and throughout tweets by many other FI traders, there is a huge value throughout the market. Although some quality young players are currently rising, in the short term the best value appears to be in potential IPD earners.


The 5X IPD promotion seems to be being temporarily overlooked by traders whilst there are no PB league games on this weekend.


Therefore, it could be a perfect time to pick up some IPD players via the Matching Engine or at valuable prices to then sell over the upcoming weeks once they (Hopefully) score or assist.


Below is a spreadsheet which shows us how much players would have earned in IPD if we had 5X IPD and the new IPD payouts since the start of the season. There are further considerations when using this data which are explained further below, but this does provide us a useful overview of which players could possibly return a considerable amount of their price in IPD alone due to this generous promotion.


*Data has been found using Index Edge - Prices within the spreadsheet are from 31.08.20 as the Index Edge spreadsheet is sent out weekly.


IPD Yield 5X Promotion Excel Spreadsheet

IPD Yield 5X Promotion
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 22.66MB

IPD Yield 5X Promotion Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R2cvXrv3DEG3iiNztfxf1NxCCsuOqIkWpZdTcPfuLMY/edit?usp=sharing


Stand-out players


Many of the players that stand-out have already increased in price this week, but we may see further rises over the upcoming weeks given the huge dividend returns on offer. Furthermore, there are plenty of gems which can be found throughout this spreadsheet that are yet to rise.


It is also worth pointing out that some of these players' spreads could open up once the promotion is over and so timing the sale of such players will be crucial to success.


As the attention of the market has been strongly focused on goalkeepers in recent months, it is interesting to view how many of the best value players for IPD are now midfielders and attackers.


Below are players who could be strong holds for short-term dividend returns/capital appreciation throughout the month of September:


Fabian Orellana

Age: 34

Price: £0.35 / £0.32

Fixtures: Real Valladolid, Real Betis, Celta Vigo, Real Madrid

19/20 G&A: 15

Peak PB Score: 350


Angel Montoro

Age: 32

Price: £0.28 / £0.15

Fixtures: Athletic Bilbao, Alaves, Getafe, Osasuna

19/20 G&A: 7 *Has now returned from a long injury out, only 15 games last season

Peak PB Score: 240


Sergi Guardiola

Age: 29

Price: £0.36 / £0.29

Fixtures: Real Sociedad, Real Betis, Celta Vigo, Real Madrid

19/20 G&A: 10

Peak PB Score: 144


Antonio Puertas

Age: 28

Price: £0.46 / £0.23

Fixtures: Athletic Bilbao, Alaves, Atletico Madrid, Villareal

19/20 G&A: 10

Peak PB Score: 135


Daniel Wass

Age: 31

Price: £0.35 / £0.16

Fixtures: Levante, Celta Vigo, SD Huesca, Real Sociedad

19/20 G&A: 7

Peak PB Score: 195


Moi Gomez

Age: 26

Price: £0.47 / £0.37

Fixtures: SD Huesca, Cadiz, Barcelona, Alaves

19/20 G&A: 9

Peak PB Score: 185


Portu

Age: 28

Price: £0.68 / £0.63

Fixtures: Real Valladolid, Real Madrid, Elche, Valencia

19/20 G&A: 15

Peak PB Score: 228




© 2019 by Football Index Club

  • Facebook Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon