Young players rising with a lack of football

Updated: Apr 20

In recent months we have seen a general trend towards young players.


The majority (61%) of players that have risen 10% or more since the last PB eligible game was played, on 11th March 2020, are under the age of 23. *Data for players over 50p only



You can see below the contrast between the players that have risen since there has been a lack of football, compared to the general amount each age range usually represents as part of the total market of over 50p players.



Strong young players have fairly consistently risen in price this season and there are a number of explanations for why they would currently be rising in price with a lack of football.


1. Jadon Sancho's rise over recent months has set a strong example for the possible growth in young players before they start regularly earning dividends. *Sancho setting the ceiling so high may partly explain how 14.9% of 16-19 years on Football Index have risen over 10% since 11th March.


2. Focus on longer term potential rather than short term dividends - with a lack of football, traders are forced to think longer term as there is currently no chance of players earning match day dividends in the short term. *Only 6% of the players that have risen over 10% since 11th March are over the age of 27.


3. Increased Spreads - this may lead to traders holding players longer which can lead to traders buying younger players.


4. Currently a greater focus on capital appreciation than dividends - young players are better known for earning traders profit via capital appreciation than for earning dividends, especially 16-19 year old's who may not even be playing for their first team. Where-as some older players may be better known for earning match day dividends. Of course capital appreciation and dividends are interlinked and far from mutually exclusive. This also explains why older players may not have risen so much recently as often their rises come from strong match day performances / earning dividends.


5. Net Bonus - young players tend to do better in the later stages of a bonus period


Overall, with a lack of football, there are perhaps more reasons to buy young players than older players. This has fared well for many players that have been highlighted on the site in recent months and many may still represent excellent value as longer term holds and may be good options for those wanting to taking advantage of the bonus period.


Young players that are over £1 have been some of the best risers on the site in recent months. Although many lower priced players have also risen huge amounts, young players that are at lower prices have not done as well as the already fairly proven young players (Over £1) that have been highlighted on the site .


The 62 players under 24 and over £1 that have been highlighted over the last 3 months have risen an average of 7.8% over an average of being highlighted for just 34 days.


The full spreadsheet containing all of these players can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Ha73guPVC7V311EHQCbiVcviDoh2w2tOOSB6EvtJkI/edit#gid=0


Below are more fairly young players who may be strong holds for the below reasons:


Richarlison


Richarlison

Price: £2.28

Team: Everton

Age: 22

Position: Forward

Country: Brazil

Top 5 PB Scores: 291, 225, 193, 182, 139

Pros:

  • High peak PB score

  • Brazil International

  • Relatively young

  • Proven goal scorer in the Premier League

  • Possible future transfer speculation (Barcelona attempted to sign Richarlison in January)

Cons:

  • Signed a 5 year contract at Everton in December 2019

Youri Tielemans

Youri Tielemans

Price: £1.79

Team: Leicester City

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Belgium

Top 5 PB Scores: 278, 217, 215, 186, 179

Pros:

  • High peak PB score (Though this was in a 9-0 win against San Marino)

  • Hit a peak price of £2.62 earlier this season

  • Price recently bottomed out and appears to be gradually rising again

  • Relatively young

  • Belgium International

  • Champions League next season with Leicester City looks very likely

Cons:

  • Low PB scores since October - highest PB score this year so far was just 121

  • Lack of game time in recent games


Dani Ceballos

Dani Ceballos

Price: £1.74

Team: Arsenal (On loan from Real Madrid)

Age: 23

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 295, 225, 230, 180, 173


Pros:

  • High PB scores

  • Relatively young

  • On loan from Real Madrid

  • Spain International

  • Hit a peak price of £2.52 earlier this season

  • Price recently bottomed out and appears to be gradually rising again


Cons:

  • Lack of regular full games


Sergio Reguilon


Sergio Reguilon

Price: £1.53

Team: Sevilla (On loan from Real Madrid)

Age: 23

Position: Defender (Left Back)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 251, 208, 195, 190, 173

Pros:

  • High PB scores

  • Relatively young

  • Europa League once football returns

  • On loan from Real Madrid

  • Price has dropped from a peak of £1.88

Cons:

  • Price has already rebounded, to some extent, from its dip (Up 10p in recent weeks)

Oleksandr Zinchenko


Oleksandr Zinchenko

Price: £1.40

Team: Manchester City

Age: 23

Position: Defender (Left Back)

Country: Ukraine

Top 5 PB Scores: 272, 215, 189, 168, 154

Pros:

  • High peak PB score (Though this was in a 3-0 win against Lithuania)

  • Relatively young

  • Champions League once football returns

  • Price has dropped from a peak of £1.90

  • Price appears to have bottomed out

  • Ukraine International

Cons:

  • Squad rotation (Competition with Benjamin Mendy for left back and possibly Angelino if he returns from RB Leipzig)


Youcef Atal

Youcef Atal

Price: £1.34

Team: Nice

Age: 23

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: Algeria

Top 5 PB Scores: 211, 151, 150, 150, 91


Pros:

  • Returns from injury in May

  • Relatively young

  • Transfer Speculation - Arsenal and Tottenham reportedly interested in Atal (Tenuous links)

  • Capable of playing in a range of positions from right back to right forward

Cons:

  • Price has already rebounded, to some extent, from its dip (Up 8p in recent weeks)


Maxwel Cornet


Maxwel Cornet

Price: £1.09

Team: Lyon

Age: 23

Position: Forward (Winger)

Country: Ivory Coast

Top 5 PB Scores: 244, 213, 178, 141, 141

Pros:

  • Relatively young

  • Champions League once football returns

  • Hit a peak price of £1.45 earlier this season

  • 2 fairly high PB scores

  • Ivory Coast International

Cons:

  • Uncertainty over his position (He has been played in a left wing back role in recent games)

  • Price has already rebounded, to some extent, from its dip (Up 8p in recent weeks)


Christian Kouame

Christian Kouame

Price: £0.96

Team: Fiorentina (On loan from Genoa)

Age: 22

Position: Forward

Country: Ivory Coast

Top 5 PB Scores: 149, 131, 89, 73, 71

Pros:

  • Relatively young

  • Returns from injury in June

  • Strong start to the season prior to injury - 5 goals and 3 assists in first 11 games

  • Price was at a peak of £1.29 prior to injury

Cons:

  • Price has already rebounded, to some extent, from its dip (Up 8p in recent weeks)


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