It has been a tough few weeks on Football Index. Whilst there is currently value in abundance throughout the market, one area of the market has certainly been overlooked during this gloomy spell - transfers.
In the recent transfer window, there was a total of 110 transfers involving players under the age of 24 moving to a PB league side:
91 under 24's moved from a PB league side to another PB league side
19 under 24's moved from a Non-PB league side to a PB league side
Many of these transfers have gone generally unnoticed by the market. Or perhaps they have been noticed, but traders are yet to act due to a lack of confidence in the platform or because of the current value that can also be found elsewhere right now.
Either way, this has created an opportunity to buy players who's potential to earn dividends has suddenly increased massively, at very low prices. Plenty of these players would have increased in price already if it hadn't been for the downturn in the market.
First of all, it can be useful to have a look at the players that have transferred. You can find a spreadsheet including all 109 transfers below. The player's names are colour coded based on how the transfer impacts their chances of earning dividends at their new side.
*This is only a rough prediction based on how they have previously performed and how they could fit in at their new side.
Green - Significant improvement in chances of earning dividends at new team (Better team/more game time etc)
Yellow - No clear judgement on whether the move will improve the player's chances of earning dividends yet (Similar quality of team/similar amount of game time etc)
Red - Transfer likely to reduce player's chances of earning dividends
Under 24's Transfers Excel Spreadsheet
Under 24's Transfers Google Spreadsheet
The players that stand out to me from this spreadsheet the most are those who are either moving to a considerably better team or have shown strong potential in the past and are now moving to a team where they could get more regular game time.
Fiorentina > Juventus (2-year loan)
Chiesa has finally moved away from the club that he has been at for 13 years. Chiesa has signed for Juventus on a 2-year loan deal where Juventus have a conditional obligation to buy for 40 Million Euros.
As mentioned in Chiesa's FIC player review, he possesses many of the underlying player characteristics which suggest strong PB potential. However, he has been held back by playing for Fiorentina who only averaged 47.9% possession last season.
Whilst at Fiorentina, Chiesa attempted to go alone often, averaging a very high 3.74 shots per 90 and completing 56.6% of his 2.77 attempted dribbles.
With better players such as Ronaldo, Dybala and Kulusevski around him, Chiesa may be able to contribute to many more goals over the upcoming seasons.
How does Chiesa fit in at Juventus?
Chiesa has been deployed as a right winger throughout the majority of his career, but last season he played mostly as a center forward due to Fiorentina's lack of forward options with Kouame out injured for most of the season.
Chiesa has only played 14.6% of his games on the left wing over the last 3 seasons, but this may be a position he plays in more frequently in the future. Towards the end of last season, Chiesa scored a hat-trick in this position and with Juventus playing with attacking full-backs that can overlap, they may be more inclined to use inverted wingers with Kulusevski cutting inside from the right and Chiesa cutting inside from the left.
Pirlo has been experimenting with a few formations so far, but longer term ,once more Juventus players return from injury, a 4-2-3-1 could suit Juventus' squad very well.
Alternatively, Chiesa could play out on the right wing in place of Kulusevski or when Juventus play two strikers, he could play as a center forward alongside Ronaldo.
Overall, Chiesa failed to hit regular high PB scores last season due to only completing 16 passes per 90, but Chiesa was able to provide a total of 20 goal contributions in 37 games. With Juventus having an average 58.3% possession last season, Chiesa is likely to get on the ball more frequently at his new team and with Juventus winning more games and also playing in the Champions League, Chiesa's chances of earning matchday dividends have improved considerably following this move.
*Price on Football Index: £1.93/£1.62
Ajax > Barcelona (5-year contract)
Dest was linked to many of the best teams throughout Europe over summer including Bayern Munich, Manchester City and PSG, but on October 1st his move to Barcelona was confirmed.
First highlighted for his performances at £0.94 in December 2019, Dest rose up to a peak price of £1.75 by February 2020 due to his breakthrough at Ajax. Since then, he has moved to one of the best teams in Europe, but has dropped in price down to a current price of £1.49 with an instant sell price of £1.21.
Although he may not be quite so successful, if a young full back is going to replicate the success of Alphonso Davies' 2019-2020 season, Dest is a likely candidate.
Dest also possesses blistering pace and is very capable within the opposition's penalty box. Averaging 4.8 dribbles per 90, Dest is up there with some of the best PB full-backs on Football Index such as Achraf Hakimi and Theo Hernandez. This can be seen via the chart taken from Total Football Analysis below.
How does Dest fit in at Barcelona?
Dest played as an attaking full back for Ajax last season, often in a 4-3-3 formation with Ziyech or Tadic infront of him on the right wing. Both wingers cut inside often and therefore provided the opportunity for Dest to frequently overlap and cross from the right wing.
At Barcelona, Dest is likely to do the same with Griezmann or Dembele cutting inside from the right wing position. This should provide plenty of space for Dest to utilise his rapid pace down the right wing and contribute in attack. Although Semedo also had rapid pace, his crossing delivery was not so strong and Dest could be a big improvement on Semedo and is likely to hit higher PB scores.
One concern for Dest is that Barcelona have previously rotated their full-backs often. However, this may have been due to Roberto/Semedo both offering different traits but neither being the complete package. Furthermore, Dest will be playing under fellow Dutchman, Ronald Koeman and with a new manager, Barcelona may no longer switch their right backs often, especially if Dest can cement the right back position for his own via strong performances.
Overall, Dest looks set to fit in well at Barcelona and he should have plenty of room down the right wing to dribble and create chances for teammates. The lack of height in Barcelona's attack may mean Dest does not attempt to cross as often as other full-backs at teams that have more traditional number 9's, but with Barcelona averaging 61.3% possession in La Liga last season, Dest could get on the ball often and provide many assists leading to high PB scores over the upcoming seasons.
*Price on Football Index: £1.49/£1.21
Tottenham Hotspur > Hoffenheim (1-year loan)
Ryan Sessengon has struggled for regular game time in recent seasons, but his move to Hoffenheim could be perfect for him to both gain experience and build his confidence back up.
Sessegnon showed at Fulham his ability to contribute to goals with a total of 24 goal contributions whilst playing in the Championship at the age of 17 and then also showed potential in Fulham's first season in the Premier League with 8 goal contributions.
How does Sessegnon fit in at Hoffenheim?
Hoffenheim have lined up in 3 different formations in their first 3 games this season under new manager - Sebastian Hoeneb. However, what has remained consistent is that they play a 3 at the back and they certainly have the players to do make this formation work.
Hoffenheim have a large squad and so Sessegnon may not always get to play a full game, but he could slot into the left wing back role very well, with Kaderabek shifting to his more natural, right wing back position.
Sessegnon has rapid pace and strong dribbling ability, but last season he only completed a low 17.6% of his attempted crosses. If Sessegnon can improve his crossing accuracy, he will have a strong chance of racking up plenty of assists with Dabbur and Kramaric to aim for in the middle.
Sessegnon will also benefit from playing in the Europa League.
Overall, Sessegnon is likely to gain more regular game time whilst at Hoffenheim, but due to Hoffenheim having a large squad and many options in many positions, we can not fully predict in which position and how frequently Sessegnon will start for Hoffenheim, just yet. But, being a young English, attacking player - Sessegnon's ceiling is very high and given his decline in price in recent months, he could be excellent value as a longer term hold if bought close to his instant sell price.
*Price on Football Index: £1.30/£0.98
Watford > Villareal (7-Year Contract)
Estupinan was one of the most surprising young talents to stand out in La Liga last season whilst at Osasuna.
Estupinan has excellent stamina and can be found frequently dribbling up the left wing and helping out defensively when out of possession.
Last season, Estupinan completed a very high 2.61 tackles and 1.66 interceptions per 90 showing his high contribution in defence. Meanwhile, Estupinan was also able to successfully complete 54.6% of his 3.4 attempted dribbles per 90. Where Estupinan suits the PB matrix in particular, is in his ability to attempt to cross frequently, attempting a high 5 crosses per 90 last season.
Attempting 9 crosses in Villareal's 4-0 defeat to Barcelona recently, Estupinan has shown his desire to create chances frequently at his new club.
How does Estupinan fit in at Villareal?
Pervis Estupinan slots into the left back position very well for Villareal in a 4-1-4-1 formation.
Moi Gomez plays as a left midfielder in front of Estupinan and with Gomez being right footed, he will often cut inside and Estupinan can overlap on the left wing.
Estupinan could improve his PB scores further by improving his crossing accuracy, as last season he only successfully completed 24.4% of his crosses. With Paco Alcacer and Gerard Moreno to aim for, Estupinan may well provide more assists this season, especially if he can improve his crossing accuracy.
However, it is worth pointing out that so far this season, Estupinan's crossing accuracy has remained relatively poor with only 29.4% of his crosses reaching a teammate so far this season. (Though this is a 5% improvement on last season and it is still early days).
Furthermore, Estupinan will benefit from playing for Villareal in the Europa Leauge this season. As we can see below, Villareal have one of the easiest Europa League groups and so Estupinan will have the opportunity to try and earn matchday dividends in the Europa League against relatively weak opposition..
*Price on Football Index: £1.23/£0.90
Additonal Transfer Players to keep an eye on during the 2020/2021 Season
Brahim Diaz to Milan £1.51/£1.31
Oscar Rodriguez to Sevilla £1.47/£1.16
Michael Cuisance to Marseille £1.45/£1.20
Moise Kean to Paris Saint-Germain £1.28/£0.93
Rayan Ait Nouri to Wolverhampton Wanderers £1.21/£1.01
Cengiz Under to Leicester City £1.15/No Instant Sell
Justin Kluivert to RB Leipzig £0.94/£0.88
Victor Mollejo to Getafe £0.83/£0.54
Federico Dimarco to Verona £0.70/£0.66
Marc Roca to Bayern Munich £0.69/£0.54