The importance of buying players with potential

Updated: Sep 13

Out of the 255 players that have been highlighted on the site since September 2019, 44 players have increased over 40p (average 65.75% in price)


Out of the 255 players, 86 players have increased over 20p (average 62.57% increase in price)


Meanwhile, only 1 player has decreased more than 22p with no players decreasing more than 40p in price.


The results above are exceptionally strong. However, the growth in the Football Index market as a whole means that it is likely that players will increase in price over time and so it is to be expected that highlighted players will increase in price.


You can now see which players have been highlighted on the site straight after they have been highlighted as a potentially valuable player in a blog, using the new 'Highlighted Players Database'


What has been learnt?


The aim of Football Index Club is to offer as much advice to Premium Members (You) as possible including highlighting potentially valuable players. The aim of highlighting players is to suggest potentially valuable players which are more likely to increase in price than to decrease in price based on the pros and cons listed and their potential to compete for dividends in the future.


Premium Members can use the information on the highlighted players to make a balanced decision on if the player is of value at their current price (Which often they are at the price highlighted at)


Increases


Having analysed the price movements in players highlighted on the site, it is clear to see that players with potential to increase in price if they were to improve have been the most successful player suggestions. Erling Braut Haland, Adama Traore, Timo Werner, Dejan Kulusevski and Alphonso Davies have all increased over £1 since being highlighted. All 5 players were highlighted before they hit exceptionally good form and started to stand out.


Dejan Kulusevski was highlighted on the site at 92p after just his second game for Parma where he provided 2 assists - since then his price continued to increase as performances improved up until his recent transfer to Juventus

Decreases


Meanwhile, Andre Silva, Kerem Demirbay, Federico Chiesa, Amine Harit and Yussuf Poulsen have all decreased since being highlighted. The reasons for these drops are clear and lessons have been learnt.


Andre Silva has decreased 38p (The most by a considerable amount) since being highlighted due to injuries and lack of game time for both Frankfurt and Portugal

All 5 players had risen in price considerably already before being highlighted and most either did not continue to perform so well or were even left to sit on the bench for the following games after being highlighted. This shows the importance of avoiding buying players after they have already increased in price when their form could be temporary / they have not nailed down a regular starting position in their side.

  • Avoid buying after significant price rises

  • Avoid buying players that do not play full games regularly, but, have increased in price recently

  • Consider what factors are already built into a players price

Results since November


Fortunately, every player (All 74) that has been highlighted on the site since November have increased in price.


Focusing more on future reasons to buy a player instead of looking at past data or player's recent performances has been key to this success.


Analysing past data on players can of course be very useful, but, the success is often limited to how far ahead this research is carried out before other traders. For example, the 30 players highlighted for their high PB scores the day before the dividend announcement have since increased 24.3%. These players were all highlighted due to past data.


However, it is likely these players' prices rose more due to the overriding trend at the time to buy players with strong, past PB scores due to the dividend announcement. This is shown by how 11/30 of these players have dropped in price since November. This is mostly because their past PB scores had become built into their price.


Considering what factors are built into a player's price


Buying players which have the potential to earn future dividends but have not yet shown solid consistent evidence of this in the past, can often be very profitable. For example, Adama Traore was first highlighted on the site in October at 92p and has since risen to £2.63 (+185%) in a short space of time.


Adama Traore increased from £0.92 to £2.72 in less than 3 months

When Adama was 92p, he did not have the positive factors below built into his price:

  • Possible transfer speculation

  • Possible EURO 2020 with Spain

  • Capable of hitting many high PB scores

As he was young and showing potential, he was highlighted on the site. His performances have since dramatically improved and since adding more of an end-product to his game his PB scores and price have increased a substantial amount.


At 92p before Adama was standing out particularly, he did have the potential to increase considerably in price if his performances improved given he is a Spanish, attacking forward / winger playing for a strong Premier League team (Wolverhampton Wanderers) also playing in a European Tournament (Europa League).


However, now at £2.63 with so many positive factors built into his price, I would not necessarily highlight him as a value player any longer.


Younger Players with potential


Looking for younger players with positive characteristics which if they hit form could increase in price considerably can prove extremely profitable. Younger players who are not already at very high prices, often have a higher potential upside than potential downside. The potential downside in younger players, who have not already increased in price considerably, is often that they remain stagnant holds and do not earn dividends.


The reason that the potential downside is relatively low in some younger player is that they are not currently expected to compete regularly for match day dividends. Unless they have already increased in price considerably in a short space of time, younger players with a lot of potential to earn dividends in the future tend to be strong holds on Football Index whilst the platform grows with more users.



Earning dividends is of course a core part of Football Index and shares would be worthless without dividends, however, many new users to the platform would rather buy into the 'next big thing'. This creates an opportunity to buy younger players with potential in anticipation for them to increase in price and also as they may increase much further in price if they earn dividends in the future.


Dividends are likely to become even more important in the future, but, whilst the product grows - there is more potential profit in capital appreciation than in dividends.


It is also worth pointing out that potential is not limited to age. Defensive midfielders, center backs and players unlikely to ever hit very high peak PB scores in their career all have limited potential compared to more attacking players with the potential to contribute to goals, dominate games and earn match day dividends in the future. Furthermore, young English players playing for teams that gain a lot of media attention / could transfer to a team which gains a lot of media attention have even more potential. Jadon Sancho is a fine example of this.


Older players who's price is built up on past data / expected dividend returns

In less than 3 months, Lionel Messi has dropped over £1.10 in price

Lionel Messi is phenomenal at earning match day dividends and is arguably the best player in the world. However, with the current dividend structure, Messi would have to win the star man on a treble day 34 times to return his price in dividends.


Lionel Messi's price is built up on the fact that he will earn match day dividends, but, at the age of 32 the potential downside over the next 3 years (Serious injury/Non-PB move/Retirement etc) is greater than his upside potential (Earn over £5.56 in dividends / sell for capital appreciation). Timing is key. However, in general it is often less risky to buy younger players with high potential than older players with potential to decrease in price as they get closer to retirement age.


It is no surprise that given over 240 different players have been highlighted on the site, some have increased considerably. However, the key point is that very few have dropped considerably.


Although there are many arguments against this, buying players with potential to improve and subsequently increase in price is arguably a less risky way to trade than to buy players who are already proven and at a high price. This shows the importance in buying players with potential.


Later this week, more players with a high potential and a much smaller potential downside will be highlighted on the site.






© 2019 by Football Index Club

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