The Dividend Increase - Reflection

Value throughout the market

New Dividend Table - 2020/2021 Season

Throughout the full Football Index stock market there is currently incredible value on offer!


Even before the recent dividend increase, there were a huge number of players who stood out as valuable holds. Now the value of players has changed dramatically and prices are no where near close to reflecting the phenomenonal dividend rise.

Over the upcoming months, prices of many players are likely to rise as the ubiquitous value slowly gets hoovered up by both new and existing traders.


The biggest ever marketing campaign should help recruit plenty of new customers and the stability offered by a new generous dividend structure combined with the implementation of a smoother market, provided by NASDAQ technology, is likely to strengthen confidence amongst existing traders leading to further deposits.


Yesterday, just 12 minutes after the dividend increase, a spreadsheet was posted on FIC including 11 players who could rise based on their potential to earn matchday dividends.


FIC Dividend Increase Players Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B_RGxVZ0YQ4521wzthAUfueu7brE_TsgwEJARs7Iacw/edit?usp=sharing


FIC Dividend Increase Players Spreadsheet


FIC 11
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 13KB

Some of the players had already increased within the first 12 minutes of the new dividend table going live. Many have continued to increase since many still appear excellent value.


The average buy price across these 11 players was £1.83 with an average instant sell price of £1.63. The average buy price is now £1.94 with an average instant sell price of £1.80.


Who to buy now?


Timing is key.

Over the next 12 months we are likely to see players of all ages, teams and positions rise over time. The dividends on offer now make so many players attractive holds.


But there will of course be money going into different areas of the market at different times and getting this part right is essential for maximising profits.


Below I go over where money could be directed both in the short and longer term.


Ligue 1 

Today there have already been plenty of Ligue 1 players rise in price as In-Play Dividends have permanently doubled and due to the 5X IPD promotion, IPD are currently 10 times what we were previously used to. 


As there is so much value throughout the market, Ligue 1 players may remain good purchases at the moment as the IPD payouts act almost as a bonus for players who already appear to be intrinsically valuable. The market is yet to catch up with the growth in dividends and so unlike during most market trends, Ligue 1 players may not drop once the 5X IPD promotion ends. 

Furthermore, those who do perform particularly well in Ligue 1 in the short term are likely to be the main benefactors from the current enthusiasm and may therefore rise the most in the short term. 


However, in 2/3 weeks time we may see players from the other 4 PB leagues rise more than Ligue 1 players.

Gaetan Laborde has increased 18.75% since being highlighted on FIC exactly 30 days ago

I planned on highlighting the likes of Denis Bouanga and Gaetan Laborde on the site again today, but given their recent rises there may be better options elsewhere.


Below are 3 more Ligue 1 players who could be value during the IPD period and are yet to really rise since the dividend increase:


Adrien Thomasson Market Price £0.64 Instant Sell price £0.60

Moses Simon Market Price £0.66 Instant Sell price £0.59

M'baye Niang Market Price £0.75 Instant Sell price £0.71


Premier League 


Many teams have 3 fixtures which is only 1 or 2 less than teams in Ligue 1. Premier League players are generally better known players by Football Index traders (Though most FIC members are now fully aware of thousands of players across all leagues).


In previous seasons, we have seen a slight trend towards Premier League players when there has been a huge marketing campaign. Therefore, we could see a lot of money pile in to strong Premier League players at the start of the 2020-2021 season due to this bias.


FIC Premier League Pick

Andrew Robertson Market Price £1.43 Instant Sell Price £1.40


Andrew Robertson stands out to me following the dividend increase. Trent Alexander-Arnold is undoubtely a hard player to compete with for matchday dividends and will usually outscore Robertson.


But, given the current IPD promotion, the huge rise in dividends for bronze and silver matchdays and Robertson's consistency - he now has a better chance of returning a considerably amount of his price in dividends.

Andrew Robertson has a strong chance of earning matchday dividends throughout the 2020-2021 season

It is also worth pointing out that all 15 of Robertson's goal contributions last season were spread across 15 different games and none of his goals were the GWG.


This is very signficant and particularly rare, but not necessarily an indicator that Robertson is unable to score/assist 2+ times in a single game. Therefore if Robertson can contribute to goals as often as he did last season, he could hit higher peak PB scores by scoring/assisting 2+ times in just one game.


*Robertson is £0.63 cheaper than any of the other 16 players that hit a PB score over 200 6+ times throughout the 2019-2020 season.

Remaining PB leagues


The Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A all only have a maximum of 2 fixtures during the 5X IPD promotion and I expect there to be more considerable rises throughout these leagues (Compared to Ligue 1 and the Premier League) in around 2/3 weeks time.


Many have seen their spreads tighten or their market price rise already. But, you can find the FIC 11 which consists of plenty of players throughout these 3 leagues here.

Oscar Rodriguez could rise in price if his move to Sevilla goes through

Transfers are certainly worth keeping an eye on over the upcoming weeks.


La Liga - Oscar Rodriguez who was one of the FIC 11 players has recently been linked to Sevilla and if this move was to go through - he would become more valuable.


Bundesliga - Marcel Sabitzer still has an 18% spread and hit a number of high PB scores last season. Given he is one of the few players yet to rise from yesterday's spreadsheet, he could be a strong hold especially if bought within his spread.


Serie A - Erick Pulgar's spread has tightened considerably since yesterday's announcement but he could still be very valuable at his relatively low price given his potential to earn matchday dividends.

Non-PB league players


The dividend returns are currently so attractive that the opportunity cost in holding Non-PB league players has just risen considerably. Therefore, the spreads of many Non-PB league players will remain wide, especially relative to PB league players.

Nikola Vlasic was highlighted on the site earlier this month, but is unlikely to rise in the short term

Overall, in the short term it may be best to avoid Non-PB league players as money is unlikely to drift into such players until these players have a chance of earning dividends either via a transfer to a PB league or through playing in a PB eligible tournament.


If focusing purely on longer term holds, some Non-PB league players could be particularly attractive holds now as due to the lack of demand for them, they can be bought at considerable discounts on their market price via the Matching Engine.


Young players


Following the dividend increase, we have seen massive rises across the platform but older players have generally risen more than young players, especially compared to the average rises over the last 12 months.

Musa Barrow has increased £0.24 since being included in the FIC 11 earlier this month

A dividend increase is huge for young players, but traders may prefer to pay for players who are already more proven in an attemt earn dividends now. Young players who can earn matchday dividends in the short term are of course arguably the best players to buy, but those who do not compete regularly for dividends may lack buyers in the short term.


Similarly to Non-PB league players, this could create an opportunity to buy at particularly valuable prices via matched bids.


Conclusion

  • Value throughout the market

  • Great time to buy players before prices catch up to value

  • Short term, may be best to take advantage of Ligue 1 IPD players

  • Marketing campaign likely to help lead to Premier League rises next month

  • Bundesliga, La Liga & Serie A rises likely later in September

  • May be best to avoid Non-PB league players in the short term

  • May be best to avoid young players with little chance of earning dividends in the short term


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