Taking advantage of drops / injuries #3
Last month we saw many players drop in price as panic swept over parts of the market and fear of further drops resulted in many traders selling their shares.
There were many reasons for traders to sell players during this period of time. Some traders had seen better opportunities in the market elsewhere, some needed the funds for personal reasons due to the impacts of Covid-19, some did not wish to 'risk' keeping their money in what was temporarily a falling market and there was also some herd behaviour with traders following each other in selling.
Whether selling players was the right decision will mostly depend on ones personal circumstances, but either way, this opened up an opportunity to take advantage of drops in many value players. The general consensus throughout Football Index Club blogs last month was that it was a great time to buy and the results show that, so far, this was definitely the right call.
The 16 players highlighted in the 'Taking advantage of drops / injuries' blogs are already up a very impressive, market beating 7.72% in less than 30 days since being highlighted.
Often when quality, young players that have a strong chance of earning dividends in the future drop considerably in price, it can be a great time to go against what the rest of the market is doing and purchase these players. As discussed recently, 'Timing is Key', but as long as the players had not clearly become over-inflated in price due to a temporary market trend - such players will almost certainly rebound in price and continue to rise longer term.
Recency bias plays a huge part in many trading decisions and many players who's performances have perhaps not been so good in recent months or have been injured have been largely neglected recently.
Meanwhile, players who had been in fantastic form prior to fixtures being cancelled have surged in price as traders regained confidence in the market as well as the added incentive of the net bonus period.
Again this opens another opportunity to buy into players who have, to some extent, been fairly forgotten recently which has been resulted in lower prices. Below are players which are being highlighted as potentially valuable as they have previously shown quality / potential in the past and are currently at what appears to be favourable prices.
Some of the players below have also been injured recently and are likely to be fit again once football returns and so could rise in price upon their return.
Kingsley Coman
Price: £2.20
Team: Bayern Munich
Age: 23
Position: Forward (Winger)
Country: France
Top 5 PB Scores: 237, 231, 199, 195, 164
Pros:
High PB scores
Relatively young
Returning from a strain injury
Bundesliga likely to be the 1st league to return
Bayern Munich are in the later stages of the Champions League
France International
Dropped 9.5% from peak price in 2020
Cons:
Injury prone
Risky - he has previously said that he will consider retirement if injury troubles persist
Competing with Lewandowski and now also Serge Gnabry (Recently changed to Forward) for PB within the Bayern Munich side
Lack of game time (Mostly due to injuries)
Steven Bergwijn
Price: £1.83
Team: Tottenham Hotspur
Age: 22
Position: Forward (Winger)
Country: Netherlands
Top 5 PB Scores: 169, 154, 143, 109, 97
Pros:
Relatively young
Netherlands International
Dropped 22.7% from peak price in 2020
Returns from injury at the end of May - possibly before the return of the Premier League
Cons:
Currently injured
Price had been built up mostly on transfer speculation (However, he was still as high as £2.36 after his first few games for Tottenham)
Domenico Berardi
Price: £1.80
Team: Sassuolo
Age: 25
Position: Forward (Winger)
Country: Italy
Top 5 PB Scores: 262, 228, 223, 175, 173
Pros:
High PB scores
Dropped 13.4% from peak price in 2020
Italy International
Transfer Speculation
Cons:
Price has already been built up partly on transfer speculation
Benjamin Mendy
Price: £1.30
Team: Manchester City
Age: 25
Position: Defender (Left Back)
Country: France
Top 5 PB Scores: 238, 234, 206, 173, 158
Pros:
High PB scores
Manchester City are in the later stages of the Champions League
Price is currently at a 6 month low
France International
Cons:
Competition for Left Back spot within the Manchester City side
Fairly injury prone
Yusuf Yazici
Price: £1.17
Team: Lille
Age: 23
Position: Midfielder (Attacking)
Country: Turkey
Top 5 PB Scores: 132, 112, 99, 54, 41
Pros:
Relatively young
Returns from injury at the end of April (Likely to be fully fit once Ligue 1 matches return)
Turkey International
Potential to hit high PB scores in the future (Strong at set-pieces and key passes)
Cons:
Low PB scores so far
Lack of regular game time prior to injury
Nico Elvedi
Price: £1.05
Team: Borussia Monchengladbach
Age: 23
Position: Defender (Center Back)
Country: Switzerland
Top 5 PB Scores: 220, 208, 195, 194, 187
Pros:
High PB average (120)
Relatively young
Previously gained transfer speculation
Switzerland International
Bundesliga likely to be the 1st league to return
Cons:
Lower price ceiling as a center back
Increased in price already this week due to speculation of Bundesliga returning 1st
Denis Geiger
Team: 1899 Hoffenheim
Age: 21
Position: Midfielder (Center)
Country: Germany
Top 5 PB Scores: 151, 100, 92, 89, 84
Pros:
Young
Strong at key passes
Germany Youth International
Recently returned from injury (Likely to be fully fit now for when Bundesliga games return)
Bundesliga likely to be the 1st league to return
Cons:
Low peak PB score
Lack of game time
Angelo Fulgini
Price: £0.72
Team: Angers
Age: 23
Position: Midfielder (Winger)
Country: France
Top 5 PB Scores: 180, 144, 144, 132, 131
Pros:
Relatively young
High PB potential - strong at crossing and key passes
Dropped 20% from his peak price in 2020
Assuming fixtures are still in the same order when football returns - Anger's first 2 games will be against 19th and 20th
Cons:
May remain a fairly stagnant hold up until Ligue 1 returns (Which seems months away for now)