Taking Advantage of drops / injuries

Football temporarily being placed on hold has led to plenty of players dropping in price. With so much uncertainty around if / when the season will resume, there has been a lack of demand for players who's only real chance of potentially earning dividends or increasing in price is through performances on match days.


Over the period of time in which football has been put on hold, most players still had a very small chance of actually earning match day dividends and it was perhaps more the potential and speculation of their performances which was driving the demand and therefore their prices.


Instead, the current demand in the market is for players who could earn media dividends due to both the increased media dividend payouts and the capital appreciation which often accompanies media dividend wins.


Many traders have weighed the opportunity cost of not profiting from media dividends so high that they have been willing to sell plenty of young, quality players to get on these risers. In the short term, this may be a profitable trading strategy if timing the buying and exit of these positions can be executed well. It is likely we will see many winners and some losers from this trading strategy in the short term, all depending on when a trader sells these players.


Once games start being played again, media dividend payouts are reduced to the usual amounts and the hype around quality young players returns - many young players who have recently dropped in price will start to rise again.


Therefore, despite these players perhaps being unlikely to rise very much in the short term, some young, quality, players may be worth buying now. Furthermore, quality younger players are susceptible to price increases if they do gain the odd transfer story linking them to a stronger side.


The below players could be solid longer term holds and could be good value at their current prices due to their prices recently dropping / stagnating due to a lack of fixtures.


*PB scores are from this season only provided by Index Edge


Mikel Oyarzabal

Mikel Oyarzabal

Price: £2.26

Team: Real Sociedad

Age: 22

Position: Forward (Winger)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 261, 151, 147, 145, 141


Pros:

  • Fairly young

  • High Peak PB score

  • Takes penalties

  • Previously gained transfer links to Manchester City (Could gain transfer speculation over summer)

  • Spain International (Likely to play at EURO 2020 / 2021)

  • Price has dropped 4.48% in the last 7 days

Cons:

  • Infrequently hits high PB scores

  • Lack of fixtures in the short term

Nicolo Zaniolo

Nicolo Zaniolo

Price: £2.23

Team: A.S. Roma

Age: 20

Position: Midfielder (Attacking)

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB Scores: 303, 285, 194, 175, 136


Pros:

  • Young

  • Very high PB scores

  • Unaffected by current lack of fixtures as he was injured anyway

  • Chance now of playing for Italy at the EURO's if they are postponed to 2021

  • Comparatively low price for such a proven 20 year old - partly due to injury

Cons:

  • Injured until late August

  • Transfer speculation less likely this summer due to injury

Cengiz Under

Cengiz Under

Price: £1.54

Team: A.S. Roma

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: Turkey

Top 5 PB Scores: 194, 159, 137, 130, 90


Pros:

  • Fairly young

  • Strong performances in his last 2 Roma games

  • Roma are still in the Europa League which is a positive - provided Europa League fixtures are fulfilled

  • Turkey International (Likely to play at EURO 2020 / 2021)

  • Price dropped 11.17% in the last 7 days

Cons:

  • Infrequently hits high PB scores

  • Lack of fixtures in the short term

Nadiem Amiri

Nadiem Amiri

Price: £1.19

Team: Bayer Leverkusen

Age: 23

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Germany

Top 5 PB Scores: 230, 168, 165, 162, 160


Pros:

  • Hit a high PB score of 230 in February

  • Strong at key passes - PB potential

  • Bayer Leverkusen are still in the Europa League which is a positive provided Europa League fixtures are fulfilled

  • Germany International (Could feature at EURO 2020 / 2021)

  • Lack of fixtures gives Amiri time to recover from his current injury which would have seen him absent from matches anyway

  • Fairly young

  • Dropped 6.31% in price the last 7 days

Cons:

  • Competition for center midfield position in the Bayer Leverkusen side

  • Infrequently hits high PB scores

Nikola Vlasic

Nikola Vlasic

Price: £1.16

Team: CSKA Moscow

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Attacking)

Country: Croatia

Top 5 PB Scores: 248, 237, 213, 175, 141


Pros:

  • Fairly young

  • Strong at key passes

  • Very high PB scores

  • Croatia International (Likely to play at EURO 2020 / 2021)

  • CSKA Moscow fixtures yet to be cancelled (They played yesterday) which could lead to more exposure of strong Vlasic performances whilst other games are postponed

  • Dropped 18.42% in price this week

Cons:

  • Currently in a Non-PB league

  • Price had increased considerably due to speculation of EURO 2020

Manuel Locatelli

Index Edge data shows Locatelli's improving PB scores

Price: £0.96

Team: Sassuolo

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB Scores: 200, 179, 178, 154, 136


Pros:

  • PB scores have improved considerably throughout the season

  • High PB score of 200 in his last game (Though it was Brescia at home)

  • Strong at key passes / providing assists

  • Transfer speculation (Linked to Inter Milan recently)

  • Dropped 3.81% in price this week

Cons:

  • Lack of goals

  • Infrequently hits very high peak PB scores

  • Lack of fixtures in the short term


Vitaliy Mykolenko

Vitaliy Mykolenko

Price: £0.82

Team: Dynamo Kyiv

Age: 20

Position: Defender (Left Back)

Country: Ukraine

Top 5 PB Scores: 210, 196, 191, 188, 166


Pros:

  • High PB Scores

  • Young

  • Ukraine International (Likely to play at EURO 2020 / 2021)

  • Transfer Speculation is likely over summer

  • Dropped 14.58% in price in the last 7 days

Cons:

  • Currently in a Non-PB league

Mikel Merino

Mikel Merino

Price: £0.79

Team: Real Sociedad

Age: 23

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 197, 164, 132, 127, 124


Pros:

  • Fairly young

  • Has had a very solid season

  • Strong base PB score - Average PB is 104

  • Starting to gain a few tenuous transfer links (Transfer Speculation over summer is fairly likely)

  • Dropped 12.69% in price in the last 7 days

  • Lack of fixtures in the short term

Cons:

  • Infrequently hits very high PB scores




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