Promotion / Relegation Players #1

Last year, as the season began to draw to a close, we saw many players who played for teams that were promoted to a PB league increase in price.


Many of these players increased considerably in price in comparison with players already in PB leagues. This is because the speculation and anticipation of high PB scores in a PB league can often lead to more demand and consequently increases in price. These players also caught trader's attention much more than players with fairly average performances already in PB leagues.


It is likely this trend may occur again and so buying players who play for teams who are likely to be promoted, could be profitable in the short term. However, promotion is already built into many of these Non-PB league player's prices. Therefore, some of these players could drop in price both in the short term, if their team is not promoted or in the longer term once the speculation of high PB scores fades if the player does not sustain strong performances once playing in a stronger division.


Furthermore, it can be difficult to judge the quality of players currently in Non-PB leagues when they are currently playing in a weaker league. Nevertheless, many of these players could rise in price in the months that follow.


You can find all players on Football Index who play for a team who have a strong chance of promotion to a PB league here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LIUeU7QH0Z74DfN5VVah1AEWDH1kO06IdvHGfvrmIeY/edit#gid=0

Jack Harrison has risen 28.5% since being highlighted on the site just 6 days ago

We may also see some players who's team are relegated rise in price due to the speculation of a summer transfer to a stronger side. Most players playing for teams that are likely to be relegated are fairly poor holds and could drop further due to no longer playing in a PB league However, some stand out players from these teams are likely to continue to play in a PB league next season via a transfer / returning from a loan and could be of good value.


Below are players who could rise in price in the following months due to possible promotion to a PB league or following possible transfer transfer speculation /returning from a loan side likely to be relegated.


*PB scores are from this season only provided by Index Edge


Sandro Tonali

Sandro Tonali

Price: £2.39

Team: Brescia

Age: 19

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB Scores: 177, 153, 146, 140, 138


Pros:

  • 5 assists and 1 goal in 23 games for Brescia

  • Brescia are bottom of Serie B with just 16 points - summer transfer speculation is likely

  • PB scores likely to improve considerably at a stronger side

  • Very young

  • EURO 2020 - Italy International

Cons:

  • Low PB scores so far

  • Lack of goals

  • Price is very much built up on a transfer already so if he does not secure a transfer - he is likely to drop in price

Grady Diangana

Grady Diangana

Price: £1.41

Team: West Bromich Albion (On loan from West Ham United)

Age: 21

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: England

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A


Pros:

  • 5 goals and 6 assists in 21 Championship games this season

  • West Bromich Albion currently 2nd in the Championship (6 points clear of 3rd)

  • Strong chance of playing in a PB league next season (Either with WBA or WHU)

  • England Youth International

  • Young

Cons:

  • Currently injured

Harry Wilson

Harry Wilson

Price: £1.37

Team: Bournemouth (On loan from Liverpool)

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: Wales

Top 5 PB Scores: 220, 167, 166, 131, 118


Pros:

  • Young

  • 7 goals in 23 games this season for Bournemouth

  • Bournemouth could face relegation (Currently in the bottom 3 with difficult fixtures) so a loan spell at Bournemouth again would be unlikely if they were relegated

  • Could possibly break into the Liverpool first team (Huge potential if so)

  • Strong chance of being sent out on loan again next season to a stronger side where his PB scores could improve

  • EURO 2020 - Wales International

Cons:

  • May be sent out on loan / transfer to a fairly weak side again next season and struggle to hit high PB scores

Andrea Petagna

Andre Petagna

Price: £0.84

Team: SPAL (On loan from Napoli)

Age: 24

Position: Forward

Top 5 PB Scores: 181, 148, 145, 120, 95


Pros:

  • Strong goal scoring record in Serie A - 27 goals in his last 61 games

  • On loan from Napoli

  • PB Scores could improve at a stronger side

  • High potential to earn IPD

  • SPAL are 19th in Serie A - likely to be at a better side next season

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

Louis Beyer

Louis Beyer

Price: £0.54

Team: Borussia Monchengladbach

Age: 19

Position: Defender (Right Back)

Country: Germany

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A


Pros:

  • Very young

  • Regular starter in 2.Bundesliga

  • On loan from Borussia Monchengladbach

  • Hamburger SV currently 2nd in 2.Bundesliga (Could be signed if they are promoted)

Cons:

  • Inconsistent form

  • Increased in price considerably recently

Nathaniel Phillips

Nathaniel Phillips

Price: £0.46

Team: VFB Stuggart (On loan from Liverpool)

Age: 22

Position: Defender (Center Back)

Country: England

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A


Pros:

  • Young

  • On loan from Liverpool (though fairly unlikely to get game time at Liverpool next season)

  • VFB Stuggart are 3rd in 2.Bundesliga

  • Has had a strong season in 2.Bundesliga

  • Strong chance of playing in a PB league next season either on loan at another side, due to promotion with VFB Stuggart or potentially as a squad rotation player at Liverpool

  • Low Price

Cons:

  • Injury prone

  • Less hype / speculation as a center back

Nicolas Viola

Nicolas Viola

Price: £0.41

Team: Benevento

Age: 30

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A


Pros:

  • Benevento look a very strong side under Filippo Inzaghi and are 20 points ahead in 1st position in Serie B

  • Nicolas Viola has hit his peak in his career very late on

  • Takes many set-pieces including penalties

  • 9 goals and 5 assists this season

  • 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games

  • Low Price


Cons:

  • Relatively old

  • Increased in price considerably recently (Due to the above reasons)

  • Likely to drop in price if he does not get regular game time in Serie A

  • Poor long term hold (*Possibly a good 3-6 month hold)

Ahmed Benali

Price: £0.23

Team: Crotone

Age: 28

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: Libya

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A


Pros:

  • 2 goals in his last game

  • 7 goals in 20 games this season

  • Crotone currently 2nd in Serie B and have won their last 4 games

  • Very low price

Cons:

  • Increased massively (As a %) this week following his recent 2 goals

  • If Crotone are not promoted - his price will almost certainly drop making Benali a risky purchase

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