With goalkeepers recently becoming so much more valuable with the introduction of goalkeeper dividends and the Team of the Month, the question now is how good value are goalkeepers compared to outfield players?
There is so much that can be analysed and whether a player is good 'value' or not is often very different to is a player worth buying? Whilst the overwhelming trend towards goalkeepers continues, there will be many keepers which get sweeped up into this trend and become overpriced. We saw a similar trend develop with IPD players and PB players following the introduction of In-Play Dividends and following the 57% dividend increase back in October 2019.
Therefore, it is certainly worth trying to independently judge whether goalkeepers are actaully 'value' or not compared to outfield players. This blog post will also address how even though goalkeepers may be good value, there are a number of reasons why they may not continue to rise in price.
The first thing to consider with goalkeepers is that their careers are longer and so this can impact their value considerably. Of all players on Football Index that have played 10+ PB eligible games:
9.6% of goalkeepers are 35+
2.4% of outfield players are 35+
Goalkeepers have an average age of 29.17
Outfield players have an average of 27.33
On Football Index there has been a general trend towards younger players over this last season which may favour outfield players. Below shows us the top 100 risers by age since the start of the season/since being IPO'd. Over 84% of the top 100 risers are younger than the average age of players on the platform and considerably younger than the average goalkeeper age.
We can also see that throughout the season, midfielders and forwards, in particular, have risen much more than defenders and goalkeepers.
This is partly because midfielders and forwards are arguably more exciting and so catch trader's attention. Furthermore, they are generally more likely to earn media dividends and star man on match days and so it is fairly logical that midfielers/forwards have increased in price, as the market has grown, more than goalkeepers/defenders.
Finding value across Football Index in under 27's
The fact that the majority of risers have come from younger than average players on Football Index may suggest that this trend will continue into the future. However, as these players have already risen so much since the start of the season, many are now no longer such strong value as the more a player rises - the less valuable they actually become.
Despite the many rises this season, there are still many very valuable players on Football Index and this blog post will attempt to help us understand how valuable goalkeepers are, compared to outfield players, focusing on under 27's in particular.
The data below focuses on under 27's that have played 10+ PB eligible games this season and have returned 5%+ of their price in divdiends this season. It also takes into account how much goalkeepers would have earned if goalkeeper dividends had have been here since the start of the season. The data also includes TOTM winners courtesy of FIDataStephen. The original data to make this spreadsheet possible was sourced using the extremely useful Index Edge.
*If you haven't already you can sign up to Index Edge for a two week free trial here.
5%+ Dividend Yield Excel Spreadsheet
5% + Dividend Yield Google Spreadsheet
Widespread Value in goalkeepers
The first thing to take away from this analysis is that there are 11 goalkeepers that would have returned 5%+ this season in dividends. Only 28 goalkeepers played 10+ PB eligible games and so this is a huge 39.2% of all goalkeepers included in this analysis.
This shows that goalkeepers that play regularly are more likely to return dividends than your average outfield player. This comes as no surprise given the smaller pool of players competing against each other to earn match day dividends.
Gautier Larsonneur, who was mentioned on the site just 5 days ago in the recent 'Is there still value left in goalkeepers post' at £0.48 has already risen a considerable 31.25% already since, but still would have returned 12.70% in dividends this season at his current price. At the age of 23, a case can certainly be made to suggest Larsonneur is still valuable.
Selective value in outfield players
In contrast to goalkeepers, very few players that have played 10+ PB eligibel games this season under 27 have actually earned any dividends.
A total of 88 outfield players have earned 5%+ in dividends so far this season. Only 9.53% of the total 923 players earned 5%+ showing that the average outfield player is less likely to return a reasonable dividend yield of 5%+.
This is because there are far more players competing outfield for dividends and also because there are particular outfield players that are much more likely to hit high peak PB scores and earn matchday dividends.
By scanning through the spreadsheet above, we can clearly see that some players have consistently earned dividends throughout the season and some stand out as exceptionally strong value.
*More players will be highlighted on FIC very soon
Amount of dividends earned
One noticeable difference between goalkeepers and outfield players is the amount of dividends earned.
Pau Lopez earning £0.14 in dividends this season (If goalkeeper dividends had have been here since the start of the season) was the highest amount that any of the goalkeepers in this analysis returned.
Meanwhile there were 26 (29.5%) outfield players returning more than £0.14 in dividends with a 5%+ dividend yield.
With higher dividend payouts for players comes higher prices as the market is forever seeking to find value leading to price increases. Therefore, the ceiling to the prices of many outfield players is higher as the ceiling to their dividend returns is higher.
Outfield players are much more likely to sweep up big dividend payouts from the media, star man and also the team of the month. For example, Timo Werner would have returned a total £1.23 (if TOTM had have been here since the start of the season) due to earning star man, team of the month and media dividends.
Ultimately, the amount of money that can go into goalkeepers whilst the keepers remain strong value is smaller than the amount that can go into outfield players due to some outfield players returning much more in dividends.
Top 5 most expensive (Goalkeepers V Outfield)
Interestingly, when we have a look at the most expensive 5 goalkeepers/outfield players we get a similar mix of dividend returners and future dividend returners for both goalkeepers and outfield players.
From the list below you can certainly draw arguments for young keepers like Donnarumma and Henderson to return more dividends in the future just as you can with Mbappe and Greenwood.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Ederson do not appear such strong value, but there dividend yields could increase considerably with the later stages of the Champions League and there is no doubt this has had some influence on their prices. Therefore, extra caution may be needed when considering buying into such players or similar, higher priced goalkeepers now as their price is built up on this expectation of short term dividend returns.
Fernandes and Sancho have huge dividend yields, but without double media dividends and perhaps less transfer speculation next season - their dividend yields could fall. They will no doubt return a fair amount of their price again next season again though.
A lot can be taken away from the spreadsheet included in this blog and it can be used to find value throughout the market. The abscence of players from the above spreadsheet can also tell a story of its own. However, this analysis fails to account for the big age difference between goalkeepers/outfield players amongst other variables which can influence value.
Furthemore, as explained in recent blogs on PB scores, player's develop and improve and often that is where the most capital appreciation can be made. The dividend yields this season are likely to differ considerably for most players next season.
Nevertheless, what is very promising and exciting for us value seeking traders is that despite an underwhelming dividend increase, there is undoubtedly some unbelievable value out there on Football Index right now in both outfield players and goalkeepers.
The dividend yields on many players are huge and many will improve even further in the future.
Receny bias, availablity bias and FOMO is currently having a huge impact on the prices of many goalkeepers on Football Index at the moment. Although many are strong value, there are also many very strong value players elsewhere on the platform too.
The majority of goalkeepers that are older and have risen considerable amounts already are now no longer such strong value and there are better opportunities in many of the outfield players included in the spreadsheet above.
Many traders are now considering the payouts that will be on offer for the Champions/Europa League and so this is built into many player's prices, especially goalkeepers. However, once these tournaments finish, it is likely we will see many of the goalkeepers playing in these tournaments drop in price, or at least rise less than other, valuable holds.