Market Trend #9 January Transfer Window

Updated: Feb 23

One key observation that I have made this week whilst the masses of IPO's have been listed is the increase in player's prices who could be on the move this January.


Whilst the international break has been underway, the temporary focus has steered away from the strong PB performers at club level and this could partly be why traders are now starting to get their portfolio's ready for the January transfer window. However, this is likely to continue up until January, especially with the chance of making massive returns via the increased media dividend payouts since the dividend increase.


To help you keep an eye out for potentially valuable transfer targets, I have created a simple Transfer Database which I will be updating regularly until the transfer window is over. I have added all players who have very recently gained Media Buzz points due to a source reporting that the player is a transfer target for another team.


As always, I would recommend researching the source of these rumours and judge for yourself the credibility as player's can often gain media points from sources which are often be very inaccurate when it comes to transfers. However, it is also important to note that the source often does not need to be very credible for you to quickly flip a player for short term capital appreciation. This will often only work if:


  1. The player has not already increased in price considerably due to the transfer story

  2. If the transfer rumour became a reality, it would have a very positive impact on the player's price

  3. The player does not have a very large spread / the player is not already at a premium price

  4. The player's price is not completely already built up on the transfer rumour becoming a reality

Erling Haland, Christian Eriksen and James Maddison are some of more obvious contenders to be in the media this January due to transfer speculation and have consequently already risen in price considerably. Below are further players from the Transfer Database which could rise further in price if the transfer speculation around them persists:


Mbwana Samatta

Team: Genk

Teams reportedly interested: West Ham United and Newcastle United

Country: Tanzania

EURO 2020: No

European Tournament: Yes (*Unlikely to qualify for next round as currently 4th)

Position: Forward

Age: 26

Price: £0.61

Top 3 PB scores: 63, 60, 54


Pros:

  • BBC Sport reported that West Ham and Newcastle were interested in signing Samatta

  • Could challenge to earn MB if a transfer to a Premier League team was to go through

  • Could be a good IPD hold if he was in a PB league

Cons:

  • Very low PB scores

  • If a transfer does not go through in January he will most likely have no access to potentially earning dividends and could drop in price

Ruben Dias

Ruben Dias

Team: Benfica

Teams reportedly interested: Manchester United, Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers

Country: Portugal

EURO 2020: Yes

European Tournament: Yes (*Unlikely to qualify for next round as currently 4th)

Position: Defender (Center Back)

Age: 22

Price: £1.00 *First highlighted at £0.87

Top 3 PB scores: 176, 164, 158


Pros:

  • Young

  • Premier League teams interested in signing Dias

  • Could challenge to earn MB dividends if a transfer to a Premier League team was to go through

  • Portugal International - will be at EURO 2020

Cons:

  • Limited price ceiling as a center back

  • PB Scores are not particularly high


Sander Berge

Sander Berge

Team: Genk

Teams reportedly interested: Liverpool and Napoli

Country: Norway

EURO 2020: Possibly *Norway will play in a play-off game to decide this

European Tournament: Yes (*Unlikely to qualify for next round as currently 4th)

Position: Midfielder (Defensive)

Age: 21

Price: £1.16 *First highlighted at £0.74

Top 3 PB scores: 196, 155, 140


Pros:

  • Young

  • Interest from high PB scoring teams

  • Could challenge to earn MB dividends if a transfer to Liverpool was to go through

Cons:

  • Limited price ceiling as a defensive midfielder

  • Already increased in price this week due to these transfer rumours

  • If a transfer does not go through in January he will most likely have no access to potentially earning dividends and could drop in price (Unless Norway qualify for EURO 2020)

Ferran Torres

Ferran Torres

Team: Valencia

Teams reportedly interested: Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool

Country: Spain

EURO 2020: No

European Tournament: Yes

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Age: 19

Price: £1.38 *First highlighted at £1.27

Top 3 PB scores: 191, 136, 123


Pros:

  • Very young

  • Interest from top European Teams

  • Most likely will be playing in the next stages of either the Champions League or Europa League

  • Could challenge to earn MB dividends if a transfer to a top European team was to go through

  • PB scores are improving - his two highest PB scores of 191 and 136 both came this month (November 2019)

Cons:

  • High price

Lorenzo Pellegrini

Team: Roma

Teams reportedly interested: Tottenham Hotspur

Country: Italy

EURO 2020: Yes

European Tournament: Yes

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Age: 23

Price: £1.99

Top 3 PB scores: 191, 178, 148


Pros:

  • High PB scores this season - average of 130

  • Relatively young

  • Strong chance of challenging to earn MB dividends if a transfer to Tottenham Hotspur was to go through

  • 4 Assists in first 6 games

Cons:

  • Currently injured

  • Increased in price significantly already this season

Mikel Oyarzabal

Mikel Oyarzabal

Team: Real Sociedad

Teams reportedly interested: Manchester City

Country: Spain

EURO 2020: Yes

European Tournament: No

Position: Forward (Winger)

Age: 22

Price: £2.38

Top 3 PB scores: 261, 202, 187


Pros:

  • Transfer away from Real Sociedad appears likely as Manchester City are reportedly ready to meet Oyarzabal's £68 Million release clause

  • Hit a strong PB score of 261 already this season

  • Young

  • Spain International

  • Chance of challenging to earn MB dividends if a transfer to Manchester City was to go through

  • PB likely to improve even further if the transfer to Manchester City was to go through

Cons:

  • Name is not Media Buzz friendly

  • High price

  • Unless a transfer goes through in January, he will not play in the Champions League / Europa League

  • May get less regular game time at Manchester City


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