Market Trend #11 Champions League / Europa League Youth Players

In the last few weeks we have seen many young players increase massively in price. Alongside other reasons, this is due to:


1. Market trend of buying strong PB performers, due to increased match day dividends, is over


Value PB performers are likely to continue to increase in price. However, the market often over-reacts to certain events and it looks like this happened in the months that followed the dividend announcement. Value can be found in all areas of the market and since a lot of the better known high PB performing players have already risen, traders are now looking in other areas of the market to find value. Speculating on youth players is often an attractive place for traders to search.


Lionel Messi's price has continued to drop since the peak of the PB performers rising trend which took place in early November

However, older players who did not increase dramatically during the PB performers rising trend are likely to still rise dramatically in price if they do consistently show their potential value through high PB scores. Josip Illicic is a great example of this, having not risen particularly after the dividend announcement, but has recently increased massively due to some very impressive PB scores.


2. Money Back Offer


The Money Back Offer provides an incentive for traders to make more 'risky' trades. Or, even if it doesn't as most will want to profit this month, some traders will make more 'risky' trades in anticipation of other traders doing the same whilst this offer is on. Therefore, many young players who have performed very well in recent weeks have massively increased as there is less concern over a price drop this month as the element of risk is eliminated by the incentive that you can get your money back this month - covering losses of up to £500.


After Rayan Cherki's quality performance where he was involved in 4 goals earlier this month, many traders may have speculated Cherki could produce another outstanding performance. Due to the Money Back Offer, traders could effectively make a free bet on Cherki having another good game as if he did then he would almost certainly increase further in price. This has helped some players like Cherki rise massively recently.

3. New traders signing up


We have seen massive growth in terms of new traders signing up to Football Index this month.


Most new traders (From those I have spoke to and around 30 people I have persuaded to sign up to Football Index in the past) are more interested at first in making fairly quick capital appreciation gains (Especially whilst the money back offer is on) through speculation than in holding players for dividends over a longer period of time.


Erling Braut Haaland increased over £1.50 in price in just one week. This showcases to new traders how much profit can be made in such a short space of time on very high performing, young players.

Therefore, many are likely to buy younger players, especially whilst other traders are doing so to try and make a quick profit. Dividends are integral to Football Index, but, to many new users a deeper understanding of the importance of dividends and how a player's potential to earn dividends relates to the player's intrinsic value may come at a later stage in a trader's Football Index journey - as such. When we have many new traders sign up to Football Index, we often see huge growth in youth players.


As the Money Back Offer is close to ending and we can't predict if next month we will see so many new traders join Football Index, it is hard to tell how much this trend towards buying young players will continue. If it does continue, the Youth Player Database may be of use to help find potentially valuable under 20 players.


However, as mentioned in previous blogs, it is likely we will see a trend towards buying players playing in the Champions League / Europa League next month and so it may be wise to buy value, younger players featuring in either of these tournaments in anticipation of both this upcoming trend as well as due to the trend towards buying younger players possibly continuing.


Pedro Neto, highlighted only 5 days ago, is one example of a young player who has increased in price massively recently and will also be playing in the Europa League. *Neto has increased 22% since being highlighted just 5 days ago

Below are potentially valuable, young players which will be playing in the next round of either the Champions League or Europa League:


1. Calvin Stengs

Calvin Stengs

Price: £2.31

Team: AZ Alkmaar

Age: 21

Position: Forward (Attacking Midfielder / Winger)

Country: Netherlands

Top 5 PB Scores: 274, 243, 130, 126, 125

Europa League Opponent: LASK (2nd in Austrian Bundesliga)


Pros:

  • Capable of hitting very high PB scores

  • Very strong at key passes - average of 2.7 per game

  • 9 goals and 7 assists so far this season for AZ Alkmaar

  • Possibly feature at EURO 2020 - Netherlands International

  • Future transfer speculation is likely

Cons:

  • Already at a high price

  • Increased in price considerably already this season

2. Ferran Torres

Ferran Torres

Price: £2.10 *First highlighted at £1.27 and several times since

Team: Valencia

Age: 19

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 191, 190, 168, 136, 126

Europa League Opponent: Atalanta


Pros:

  • 5 goals and 4 assists this season for Valencia

  • Continuing to improve throughout the season - shown in improved PB scores

  • Relatively low price compared to many other 19 year olds that are much less proven in a PB league

  • Future transfer speculation is likely

Cons:

  • Already at a high price

  • Increased in price considerably already this season

3. Cengiz Under

Cengiz Under

Price: £1.64

Team: Roma

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Attacking Midfielder / Winger)

Country: Turkey

Top 5 PB Scores: 159, 130, 90, 89, 65

Europa League Opponent: Gent


Pros:

  • Under has been in good form recently since returning from injury

  • EURO 2020 - Turkey International

  • Likely to get more game time this season with Nicolo Zaniolo being injured

Cons:

  • Low PB scores so far

4. Nicolo Barella

Nicolo Barella

Price: £1.49

Team: Inter Milan

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB Scores: 193, 170, 168, 164, 137

Europa League Opponent: Ludogorets


Pros:

  • Inter Milan have a very winnable Europa League fixture

  • EURO 2020 - Italy International

Cons:

  • Infrequently hits high peak PB scores

5. Xaver Schlager

Xaver Schlager

Price: £1.07

Team: Wolfsburg

Age: 22

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Country: Austria

Top 5 PB Scores: 131, 122, 98, 89, 75

Europa League Opponent: Malmo


Pros:

  • Winnable Europa League fixture

  • Could benefit from Germany expansion

  • EURO 2020 - Austria International

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

6. Marc Cucurella

Marc Cucurella

Price: £0.78 *Also highlighted last month at £0.73

Team: Getafe (On loan from Barcelona)

Age: 21

Position: Defender (Left Back)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB Scores: 160, 150, 133, 115, 103

Europa League Opponent: Ajax


Pros:

  • On loan from Barcelona

  • 4 assists this season

  • Fairly strong at key passes - average of 1.2 key passes per game (Likely to improve if he was to get game time for Barcelona next season)

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

  • Getafe face Ajax in the Europa League (Difficult fixture)

7. Dani De Wit

Price: £0.71

Team: AZ Alkmaar

Age: 21

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Country: Netherlands

Top 5 PB Scores: 174, 66, 64, 43, 36

Europa League Opponent: LASK (2nd in Austrian Bundesliga)


Pros:

  • In good form in recent games - 2 goals and 2 assists in last 2 games

  • Relatively low price compared to other young players at strong Europa League sides

Cons:

  • Currently in a non-pb league

  • Currently a lack of transfer speculation linking him to a PB league


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