Each month, I will be posting an analysis covering the price movements in players that were highlighted on the site from the previous month.
A lot can be learned from analysing players' price movements over time and so it should be interesting to see why players highlighted on the site increased or decreased in price in the 30 days that followed.
As mentioned in various blog posts, the players highlighted on the site are usually players who could rise in the short term (over the next 30 days) usually due to suiting an upcoming market trend. Most players are highlighted due to also being great longer term holds as blogs generally focus on younger players.
These monthly blogs will analyse the results from the previous month to allow 30 days to go by since the last player from this month was highlighted on the site.
March 2020 Results
A total of 58 players were highlighted throughout blog posts in March. This is considerably more than usual, but this is due to many players decreasing in price due to the cancellation of football and uncertainty around Covid-19.
Furthermore, the 8.25% bonus provided an extra incentive to take advantage of the many opportunities that rose from the selling and listing of players throughout this month.
As mentioned in the 'Current Approach to The Market' blog from last month (13/03/20) following the decreases in many players, it was a 'great opportunity to buy some of the quality, young players that have been dumped recently'. This strategy proved very profitable with the 35 players highlighted after this blog post rising an average of 11.98% since. *Results improved after the cancellation of football as some players were highlighted at the start of March due to favourable upcoming fixtures.
The current average increase of the 58 players highlighted throughout March is 9.04%
The average price increase of the 58 players highlighted throughout March after 30 days was 6.75%
We saw tremendous market growth during this time and so it is no surprise to see such positive figures. However, what is important to consider is many traders would have hesitated to get involved in buying players at discounted prices for various reasons, but looking back it certainty was 'arguably the best time to invest in players on Football Index' as suggested in the blog following the drops last month.
The full spreadsheet showing the results from the players highlighted in March 2020 can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TyHfMnZgDuOpcyIpYJu97tvjY-bcotF-1ggSPetkeu0/edit#gid=0
In no way am I advocating that the below players should now be purchased, the below information is provided to help explain why we have already seen such positive price movements in some of the players highlighted on the site last month.
Considering why players have risen in price can help in finding patterns in the market and to consider which type of players are likely to gain the attention of the market and for what reasons.
Manuel Locatelli from £0.96 to £1.34
Locatelli has risen 39.58% since being highlighted on the site on the 16/03/20.
Locatelli had been highlighted due to his improving performances and therefore PB scores throughout the season.
Young players that improve throughout the season can often be great holds as the more they develop on the pitch, the more the speculation of improved PB scores increases and this often leads to increased demand and so an increase in price.
Improving young players also have a chance of gaining transfer links and since being posted on the site partly due to tenuous links to Inter Milan, these transfer rumours have grown.
Jack Harrison from £1.12 to £1.54
Harrison has risen 37.50% since being highlighted on the site on 02/03/20
Harrison's price had already been growing prior to being included in the 'On loan players U24 Post #1' blog due to strong performances. Harrison then had another strong game against Huddersfield Town the weekend after this blog post was posted.
What has led to Harrison's considerable rise in price is the speculation of him performing well in the Premier League and possibly suiting the PB matrix well. Harrison is a particularly creative player, averaging 2.1 key passes per game and has provided 7 assists this season. These sort of stats suggest Harrison could follow the path of players like Emiliano Buendia and Jack Grealish in rising in price a considerable amount due to strong performances / high PB scores following promotion.
This considerable increase in Jack Harrison's price in recent months shows the profit which can be made again in buying young, improving players. But, also in players who could be playing in a PB league in the future and suit the PB matrix. Being English too sets a high ceiling to which Harrison's price could go.
Jean-Phillipe Mateta from £0.94 to £1.22
Mateta has risen 29.79% since being highlighted on the site on 31/03/20 - a considerable rise in just 30 days.
Mateta had been highlighted in the 'Transfer Targets #2' blog and the main reasons for potentially buying Mateta at the price of £0.94 was the speculation of future transfer links coupled with the fact that his price had appeared to have bottomed out.
Since this blog, Mateta has gained various tenuous transfer links proving how we can profit from anticipating transfer links before they take place, by looking into a players circumstance at a club.
Mateta is also a prime example of the opportunities which can arise from players who's price appears to have bottomed out as mentioned in the 'Timing Is Key' post earlier this month.
Now as previously mentioned, the above rises are likely in a market that has risen so much in recent months, especially when 58 players are highlighted throughout the month. It is almost inevitable some players will rise huge amounts. However, it is also difficult to avoid seeing a few players drop in price too (Though not by much).
25 of the 58 players highlighted on the site rose in price a greater amount than the largest decrease in price out of all players.
It is equally, if not even more important, to look at players who were highlighted on the site who dropped in price and understand the reasons for these drops.
Toni Lato from £0.43 to £0.39
Lato's only dropped 4p, but given his low price, this is a 9.30% drop and reminds us of the risk involved in taking a punt on particularly cheap players. Often low priced players will have such low prices for a reason.
Furthermore, it is worth considering how much low priced players have already risen in previous weeks and months.
Lato, for example, had already risen from £0.30 to £0.43 in the previous months before being highlighted on the site. Although, this £0.13 increase did not seem like too much - it was perhaps overlooked. This £0.13 increase was a 43% rise making the timing of Lato being highlighted on the site, fairly risky as he was at a 1 year peak in price when mentioned on the site.
Following his rise up to £0.43, Lato failed to make the squad for Osasuna's next game after playing in Osasuna's 3-2 defeat to Sevilla.
Scott McTominay from £1.57 to £1.46
Similarly to Lato, the timing on McTominay had been wrong. McTominay had been mentioned on the site just weeks after rising from £1.37 to £1.57. Again, reinforcing the importance of timing the buying of players by judging their price graphs.
Furthermore, McTominay is behind various players (Fernandes, Pogba and Fred) when it comes to competing for both match day and media dividends at Manchester United.
However, McTominay was mostly highlighted on the site due to favourable Manchester United and Scotland fixtures which of course have not gone ahead. This partly explains why he has dropped in price, instead of potentially rising further.
An important consideration to takeaway form this is how many players rise in price due to upcoming fixtures and this should be considered when judging why a player has already risen in price. If the player does not live up to what is expected of them in these fixtures, they may well drop in price once the favourable fixtures have been played.
Anthony Gordon from £1.43 to £1.35
Gordon was highlighted due to suiting the reactive nature of the market at the time alongside Everton's upcoming fixtures possibly providing him with an opportunity to shine and rise a huge amount.
Again, the timing on Gordon was poor as he had already recently risen and then with the lack of fixtures, his price subsequently declined. (Down 5.59%)
Contrast between the biggest risers and biggest decreases
What all three players who had decreased in price have in common is that they had all already risen in the weeks prior to being highlighted on the site and the reasons for buying these players were all highly speculative.
However, the prospects of future dividend returns based on past performances or future transfer speculation was low for all three who had dropped. Lato and Gordon were both very unproven in PB eligible games and McTominay had the future potentially negative impact of Paul Pogba (Returning from injury) and Bruno Fernandes beating him to match day and media dividends.
Meanwhile, all three players who rose the most in price were in a solid position to improve their dividend return in the future. Locatelli via improving performances / PB scores, Harrison via improving Championship performances and a strong chance of playing in a PB league next season and Mateta via a potential transfer.
Lack of activity in the lower end of the market
One more consideration which can be taken away from the price movements in players from March 2020 was the difference in increases between players in different price brackets.
The 11 players highlighted on the site that were under £0.75 grew a measly average of 1.36%. Although, this is partly due to many of these players being highlighted as favourable holds due to promotion / relegation and so in hindsight could have been highlighted on the site too soon, the small rise in these players may be due to the lack of activity in the lower end of the market.
In recent months, we have certainly seen a general lack of rises in lower priced holds and there could be a few reasons for this:
Most of the best lower priced players have already increased in price over the last 3-6 months with the growth of the platform and more traders seeking value in this area of the market
Increased spreads in recent months (Particularly at the moment) have reduced the trading in lower priced players due to the lack of liquidity and fear of holding an unsalable share
We have seen some huge price increases in some of the highest priced players on Football Index in recent months showing the profit which can be attained via capital appreciation in the top end of the market
No access to earning dividends in the short term due to lack of fixtures (Some may be strong IPD holds)
With the current large spreads and lack of football, it may be difficult to make substantial profits on a lot of lower priced players at the moment.
So far April's results are also looking very promising and the lessons learned from the players highlighted in March will help contribute to improving future results on the site too with plenty more blogs to come throughout May.
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