Lower risk players to buy ahead of the January transfer window

As mentioned in the Approaching the January 2020 Transfer Window post, many players now have the possibility of a transfer built into their price ahead of the January transfer window.


In this post it is mentioned that players which have the below positive factors are less risky players to buy as if they do not gain any transfer speculation, they are less likely to drop in price as their price is built up on various positive factors which will still be prevalent after the January transfer window.


However, there is potential for some of these players to gain transfer speculation and so the potential upside during January is high with a low potential downside.


We have already seen considerable price increases in other younger players with a lot of potential this week. Rolando Mandragora has increased 31% and Mathieu Cafaro has increased 32% since being highlighted only 5 days ago.


Positive characteristics making players less risky holds in the short term

  • Have not already increased considerably in price in the last 6 weeks due to transfer speculation

  • Currently playing in a PB-league

  • Relatively Young

  • Will feature in an upcoming tournament (which could be a future market trend) such as the later stages of the Champions / Europa League or EURO 2020

Below are players which have the above positive characteristics and therefore could be of value over the coming months and are less likely to drop in price once the January transfer window closes.


*PB scores are from this season only - courtesy of Index Edge

Josip Brekalo

Josip Brekalo

Price: £1.39

Team: Wolfsburg

Age: 21

Position: Midfielder (Winger)

Country: Croatia

Top 5 PB scores: 219, 194, 153, 121, 120


Pros:

  • Fairly high PB scores

  • Could have his position changed from midfielder to forward which would likely lead to an increase in price

  • Europa League - Wolfsburg play Malmo in the next round

  • EURO 2020 - Croatia International

Cons:

  • Increased in price 16.8% already this month

Justin Kluivert

Justin Kluivert

Price: £1.29

Team: Roma

Age: 20

Position: Forward

Country: Netherlands

Top 5 PB scores: 168, 163, 136, 121, 95


Pros:

  • Having a better season than last (Improving)

  • 1 goal in each of his last two games for Roma

  • Europa League - Roma play Gent in the next round

  • With Donyell Malen and Memphis Depay injured, a strong second half of the season could lead to a Netherlands call up for EURO 2020

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

  • Yet to hit a very high peak PB score

Riqui Puig

Riqui Puig

Price: £1.26

Team: Barcelona

Age: 20

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Country: Spain

Top 5 PB scores: N/A


Pros:

  • Better chance of featuring for Barcelona in the second half of the season as Carles Alena has been sent out on loan to Real Betis

  • A lot of potential - has been a strong player in Barcelona's youth teams in recent years

Cons:

  • Unproven PB scores

  • Lack of game time

Nadiem Amiri

Price: £1.22

Team: Bayer Leverkusen

Age: 23

Position: Midfielder (Attacking)

Country: Germany

Top 5 PB scores: 168, 165, 160, 158, 128


Pros:

  • Strong chance of improving goal / assist output in 2020 (Currently only 1 assist and 0 goals in 16 games this season)

  • Strong at key passes

  • Europa League - Bayer Leverkusen play Porto in the next round

  • EURO 2020 - Germany International

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

  • Yet to hit a very high peak PB score

Eljif Elmas

Eljif Elmas

Price: £1.03

Team: Napoli

Age: 20

Position: Midfielder (Central)

Country: North Macedonia

Top 5 PB scores: 219, 151, 124, 122, 97


Pros:

  • Capable of hitting high PB scores

  • Dropped in price considerably recently

  • 4 goals in 10 EURO qualifying games for North Macedonia this season

  • Champions League - Napoli play Barcelona in the next round

Cons:

  • Lack of regular game time

  • Various unreliable sources reporting that he will transfer to Besiktas recently

Ibrahim Konate

Ibrahim Konate

Price: £1.03

Team: RB Leipzig

Age: 20

Position: Defender (Central)

Country: France

Top 5 PB scores: 162, 149, 143, 127, 94


Pros:

  • Experience - 49 Bundesliga appearances by the age of 20

  • May increase in price when he returns from injury

Cons:

  • Currently injured

  • Lower price ceiling as a center back

Patrick Cutrone

Patrick Cutrone

Price: £0.84

Team: Wolverhampton Wanderers

Age: 21

Position: Forward

Country: Italy

Top 5 PB scores: 74, 64, 51, 46, 39


Pros:

  • Fairly strong goal scoring record for AC Milan in the 2017-2018 season (10 goals in 28)

  • Strong chance of a transfer this January transfer window - likely to lead to more regular game time (Linked with various Serie A sides)

  • If he does stay at Wolves, they are in the Europe League and will play Espanyol in the next round

Cons:

  • Low PB scores

  • Likely to transfer to a team that will not play in a European Tournament and not in the Premier League

Musa Barrow

Musa Barrow

Price: £0.69

Team: Atalanta

Age: 21

Position: Forward

Country: Gambia

Top 5 PB scores: 54, 34, 33, 32, 30


Pros:

  • Bologna will reportedly sign Barrow in the January transfer window - could lead to more regular game time

  • If he does stay at Atalanta, they are in the Champions League and will play Valenica in the next round

Cons:

  • Very low PB scores

  • Lack of game time

  • Likely to transfer to a team that are not in a European Tournament

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