Loans, contracts ending and potential transfers
The market has settled down over the last few days for a number of reasons. The main reason is that there is a lack of football, but it is also likely many traders currently have less to spend at the moment having piled in to take advantage of the recent bonus period. Many traders will also be eagerly waiting with cash balances ready to pounce on the confirmation of a league returning.
The Bundesliga has been pushed back further, but it still appears likely that the Bundesliga will return first and La Liga, Serie A and the Premier League should return this season too.
We can not know for certain that these leagues will return and whilst we wait for an update on when games will return, it could be useful to turn our attention to players who could rise further in price over the upcoming months due to having a better chance of earning dividends next season.
A player returning to a stronger side from a loan spell or a player securing a transfer to a stronger side can have a significant impact on the demand for the player due to the speculation of the player's improved chances of earning dividends.
Although the pie chart below does include PB scores over 200 hit when the1.25 European tournament multiplier is applied, it still helps to show how significant the impact playing for a strong team has on a player's chance of regularly hitting a high PB score.
Arguably, players at the best teams hit the highest PB scores just because they are the best players (Which is why they play for the best teams), but possession, game winning goal, win bonus and the way in which the PB matrix works means players at better sides tend to hit high PB scores more frequently.
Loans
Rising 26% in price since being highlighted on the site in March, Louis Beyer is a great example of an on loan player who has started to rise in price recently. Both Jack Clarke (Up 7%) and Louis Beyer (Up 18%) are on loan from strong sides and their rises this week show that traders may have started to look for value in young players on loan.
The prospect of a player improving their chances of earning dividends in the future can drive a lot of demand for a player. Despite some on loan players having little chance of regularly starting for their parent club once they return, the speculation of the player being given a chance and taking it, can be enough to lead to a considerable increase in price.
To help you find on loan players that could potentially rise in price, you can find a list consisting of 176 on loan players, under the age of 24 that are currently on Football Index here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Dmd4gyCThvWKBzh0uCnftoArFZUCWrX5u_qEosaBhXA/edit#gid=0
Many of these loan players have already been highlighted on the site in recent months and we have seen some considerable rises in some of the more obvious, higher priced players in recent weeks and months including rises in Odegaard, Hakimi, Trincao and Kubo.
Below are more on loan players who are yet to be highlighted on the site this year, but could potentially rise in price due to returning to a stronger side which could lead to an improved chance of earning dividends in the future.
*You can now click into the player's name for their full player profile!
Price: £1.11
Team: Hellas Verona (On loan from Genoa, on a two year-long loan from Inter)
Age: 18
Position: Forward
Country: Italy
Top 5 PB Scores: N/A
Pros:
Very young
Strong goal scoring record at youth level
On loan from Inter Milan
Italy Youth International
Cons:
Lack of regular game time for Hellas Verona
Unproven in Serie A
Price: £0.57
Team: Hellas Verona (On loan from Atalanta)
Age: 23
Position: Midfielder (Center)
Country: Italy
Top 5 PB Scores: 144, 128, 123, 122, 112
Pros:
Relatively young
On loan from Atalanta
Strong performances this season for Hellas Verona
Transfer Speculation (Various strong sides reportedly interested in Pessina)
PB scores could improve at a stronger side
Cons:
PB scores are generally low
Low peak PB score
Increased considerably in price already this season (116% increase)
Price: £0.50
Team: IFK Norrköping (On loan from West Ham United)
Age: 21
Position: Midfielder (Winger)
Country: Montenegro
Top 5 PB Scores: N/A
Pros:
Young
Montenegro International
Strong at providing goals and assists
Low price
On loan from West Ham United
Cons:
Increased in price considerably already this season (177% increase)
Playing in a poor, Non-PB league
May not get given a chance at West Ham United
Contracts Ending in 2020/2021
Players who's contracts are ending before the end of June 2021 may be more susceptible to transfer speculation over the next few months as clubs attempt to receive transfer fees for players rather than letting them go on a free transfer once their contract runs out.
One example of this is Lucas Vazquez who increased 18% in price this week as he has 'left the door open for a premier league move'. Vazquez's contract ends in 2021 and given he is not a regular starter at Real Madrid, a transfer may be likely.
Teams that are even more financially vulnerable may be in need to ensure they receive a transfer fee for players who's contract is ending in the next 18 months and so may be linked with a move away from their current club which can lead to an increase in price.
Below are some more players who's contract ends in 2021 and could be valuable holds at their current prices given the possibility of transfer speculation emerging.
Price: £0.89
Team: Atalanta
Age: 24
Position: Defender (Right Back)
Country: Belgium
Top 5 PB Scores: 260, 205, 197, 165, 141
Pros:
Capable of hitting high PB scores (Though so far only against relatively weak sides)
Contract ends in June 2021
Champions League with Atalanta
Previously gained tenuous transfer links
Dropped 19% from peak price in 2020
Cons:
Competition for wing back position with Hateboer and Gosens
Price: £0.47
Team: Porto
Age: 25
Position: Midfielder (Right)
Country: Brazil
Top 5 PB Scores: 124, 116, 104, 84, 51
Pros:
Low price
Outside chance of a transfer - contract ends in June 2021
Improving performances this season - 3 assists in his last 7 games
Cons:
Non-PB league
Appears fairly comfortable staying at Porto
Potential Transfers
A potential transfer can already be built into a players price, but what can be overlooked is the potential impact a player moving to a stronger side could have on the players potential to earn dividends.
Many players will increase in price due to transfer speculation, but the impact a transfer will have on a player's potential to earn dividends will vary massively depending on the player.
A player may rise in price a huge amount due to the speculation of a transfer and then once the transfer is confirmed and the speculation fades, the player's price starts to drop as often the reality is that the player is unlikely to compete for dividends often at their new club. There are exceptions to this of course.
As mentioned above, the impact playing for a strong side can have on a player's potential to hit high PB scores is huge. Therefore, it may be worth attempting to find players who could hit very high PB scores at a stronger side given the quality they have shown at a relatively weak side.
What can be fairly risky about this is that the player may not end up leaving at all, go to a weak side or go to a strong side but fail to get regular game time. Below are players who if they were to sign for a stronger side and play regularly, could be very valuable and so could be strong holds at their current prices.
Price: £2.23
Team: Norwich City
Age: 23
Position: Midfielder (Winger)
Country: Argentina
Top 5 PB Scores: 242, 199, 197, 181, 177
Pros:
Average of 2.6 key passes per game
High PB scores without scoring
Potential to score more frequently at a stronger side
A transfer ahead of next season is likely
Relatively young
Cons:
A potential transfer is already built into Buendia's price
Price has already increased considerably this season
Price: £1.41
Team: Torino
Age: 26
Position: Forward (Center)
Country: Italy
Top 5 PB Scores: 254, 241, 190, 183, 154
Pros:
Strong goal scoring record
High PB scores
Transfer speculation is likely - recently linked to Everton, Manchester United and Napoli
Italy International
Torino's poor form may make a transfer more likely (Torino have lost their last 7 games)
Cons:
Price fluctuates often depending on recency of transfer links and had already risen fairly recently due to transfer links
Price: £1.19
Team: Augsburg
Age: 26
Position: Defender (Left Back)
Country: Germany
Top 5 PB Scores: 275, 249, 231, 153, 152
Pros:
Very high PB scores for a player at a weak side
7 goals and 5 assists this season
Outside chance of a transfer given his quality and weakness of Augsburg
Cons:
Price has risen considerably in recent weeks