Is there still value left in Goalkeepers?

Goalkeepers undoubtedly benefited the most from the recent dividend increase and most have already surged up in price.


Over the last few days I have analysed how much goalkeepers would have earned in dividends if we had a goalkeeper dividend category from the start of the season.

To analyse how much goalkeepers would have earned, I have used data from Index Edge to see which goalkeeper had the highest PB score on every match day this season.


You can find the results in the spreadsheets below.


Excel Spreadsheet

Goalkeeper Dividends
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 21KB

Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KFlp2xLDxL3s9aWcQp0KCBwSPQc4oSiYP8_NvWIHn9M/edit#gid=403507136


Availability Bias


The first thing to take away from this analysis is how the information which is memorable and so is recalled by the minds of traders on Football Index has caused a huge bias towards better known goalkeepers. Availability bias is the tendency for us to think of immediate examples that readily come to our mind.


Ederson's 105% rise this week is a great example of this as he is one of the most well known goalkeepers, but if goalkeeper dividends had have been here since the start of the season, he would have only had the 73rd best dividend yield.


Conversely, some of the lesser known goalkeepers would have produced huge dividend yields and some could still be very strong value.


Randomness


The second consideration on goalkeepers is the randomness to which they will win dividends based on the number of match days being played. Due to the smaller pool of goalkeepers to any other position, the winners are likely to be more random and this is shown by the large standard deviation in the match day dividend winning score that goalkeepers will need to win dividends.


For example, the highest matchday score that would have won goalkeeper dividends this season was 260, whilst the lowest score was just 24. The average score was 154.


This favours lower priced players that could occassionally win on bronze/silver match days as their dividend yields could be much higher.


Due to the randomness, the dividend yields shown in the spreadsheets above are likely to vary significantly next season.


Selling goalkeepers


At the moment, goalkeepers are on trader's minds and are in demand. As we saw during the last dividend increase (Explained further here) strong PB performers increased huge amounts at first, but then dropped in price.


Spreads on most goalkeepers are tight (Relative to other lower priced players). However, over time the spreads could widen and goalkeepers could become difficult to sell. Many strong IPD forwards have very wide spreads and given the low goalkeeper payouts (1p, 2p, 3p) these payouts may not be enough to cover the risk of holding a goalkeeper who could become difficult to sell.


Are goalkeepers value?


In terms of dividend yields, there are plenty of goalkeepers who appear fairly strong value and will return their price in dividends. However, many will be difficult to sell and there is a fairly strong chance that some goalkeepers will drop in price in the future once the trend towards them drops off.


Given the very strong chance of them both returning their price in goalkeeper dividends over the next 3 years and becoming more valuable in 3 seasons time, young, lower priced goalkeepers may be the best value picks. Alban Lafont and Gautier Larsonneur stand out from the spreadsheet above in particular.


Conclusion


Due to goalkeepers already rising in price, the low payouts, the randomness of earning goalkeeper match day dividends and the general lack of liquidity in the lower end of the market - many goalkeepers may struggle to rise much further.


Goalkeepers are undoubtedly much more valuable now than they were just a few days ago, but it is worth considering that similarly to strong PB performers last season - there is currently a lot of momentum behind goalkeepers right now.


Once this momentum dampens, spreads could widen. With this being said, if the right goalkeepers are picked there is still a lot of value left in a few goalkeepers and the spreadsheets above can help you find the right ones.







© 2019 by Football Index Club

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