Is Jadon Sancho still value?

In late February Jadon Sancho hit £9 to become the new king of Football Index. At the time he had earned just £0.11 in match day dividends and £0.08 in media dividends.

Since then, he has earned a further £0.04 in match day dividends and an incredible £1.77 in media dividends.


Sancho's total dividend return this season is currently £2.00 and he has a market price of £14.70 and this price continues to increase. A 12.3% dividend return on his current market price is seriously impressive, but will such strong dividend returns continue and is Jadon Sancho still 'value'?


How has he earned so much in dividends?


First of all, it can be useful to look further into how he's managed such an impressive return so far this season. The context of his past returns are very useful to help us attempt to make predictions on his future.


Match Day Dividends


Sancho has only returned £0.15 in match day dividends this season. A 1.02% return on his current market price may seem fairly poor, but for Sancho's age this is a respectable dividend return.

Ansu Fati scored a brace against Levante

Ansu Fati is the only player U21 to have earned more in match day dividends this season and that was by hitting a PB score of 286 which earned him £0.16 in match day dividends on just one match day. Sancho has hit two PB scores higher than 286 and has earned match day dividends on three separate occassions this season.


Sancho actually earned 19.2% of all match day dividends earned by U21's on Football Index whilst only making up 5.18% of the total cost of all U21's (£283.14).

Sancho has hit two 300+ PB scores this season

So, overall, Sancho's match day dividend return will need to improve further in the future but he is still masively outperforming other players around his age.


More on his PB scores and match day dividend potential further below...


Media Dividends


Transfer speculation, particularly Manchester United links, have led to Sancho earning a huge amount of media dividends.

Since the transfer links started to pick up in late February, Sancho has earned both the most in media divdiends, by a long way, and has the highest total media score.


The Media Stats Table, from Index Edge, shows us media scores between 01/03/20 - 31/07/20.


Now what is crucial to take into account when we look at Jadon Sancho's £1.77 media dividend return is how media dividends have been much higher than usual due to Covid-19 resulting in a lack of games.


In another 5-month period, between 01/10/19 - 29/02/20 for example, the dividend returns are much lower than we have seen over the last 5 months.

Over the last 5 months, the top 13 dividend winners have earned 2.95 times as much as the top 13 dividend winners between October - February.


In the short term, Jadon Sancho is likely to pick up plenty more media dividends due to the current media promotion. Longer term, Sancho may not always be the man of interest during media promotional periods and so it would be unwise to assume the amount of media dividends he has earned this season will continue longer term.


With or without promotional media periods, Sancho looks likely to continue to return a huge amount of media dividends in the future.


Jadon Sancho at Manchester United - Media Dividends


First of all, as mentioned above, Sancho looks set to continue to earn media dividends in the short term as the Manchester United transfer links continue to grow. One of the best ways to look at Sancho's potential to earn media dividends if the transfer does go ahead may be to look at how Bruno Fernandes' media dividend returns have fared since he signed for Manchester United.

Bruno Fernandes Media Dividends during and after transfer saga

Prior to signing for Manchester United on the 29/01/20, Fernandes had earned £0.57 in media dividends. Since signing, Fernandes has earned a further £1.42 in media dividends. As explained above, the media dividends on offer have increased considerably in the past 5 months, but even so this shows how players can continue to earn media dividends following signing for Manchester United.


In the chart aboe we can see the media dividends are at first very clustered in the weeks building up to the transfer and just after. The double media dividends promotion had a signficantly positive impact on Fernandes' media return. But since then, Fernandes has earned dividends occassionally.


It is worth pointing out that Fernandes' price has continued to grow throughout the period in which he has earned media dividends in the chart above.


As an exciting, attacking, English winger - it is hard to imagine that Sancho wouldn't earn a huge amount of media dividends at Manchester United. Longer term after settling at Manchester United, his media pull would likely depend on the strength of his performances and media dividend wins are likely to be less clustered - similar to Fernandes' in the chart above.


Sancho will also benefit further from playing in the Champions League, EURO 2021 and the World Cup as a Manchester United player.


*The media dividend review could influence the Manchester United/English bias slightly, but given that Sancho is one of the best young players in the world regardless of team and nationality - it is unlikely that any changes will negatively influence Sancho's chances of earning dividends very much.


Jadon Sancho at Manchester United - Match Day Dividends


Manchester United line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Sancho tends to play as a right winger or right attacking midfielder, but he can also play as a left winger.

Sancho would suit Manchester United's style of play well as he uses his exceptional dribbling ability (5.7 dribbles per 90 with a 56.5% success rate) to dribble down the wing and then either shoot or create a chance for a teammate.


Although Martial and Greenwood are not the tallest forwards, both are strong at finishing. This would suit Sancho as a very high 48% of Sancho's assists in the 2019-2020 season came from passes into the box.


Sancho only averages 0.68 successful crosses per 90 and so having strong finishers arriving in the box such as Martial/Greenwood/Rashford/Fernandes/Pogba could lead to even more key passes per game (Currently a high 2.63 per 90).


Sancho has shown his ability to hit very high peak PB scores in the Bundesliga already with two PB scores over 300.


Furthermore, he has shown his ability to score and create very often with 17 goals and 17 assists in 32 Bundesliga games.


Sancho's ability to perform against strong sides


The greatest concern around Sancho is possibly the question of how proven he is against stronger sides. 7 out of Jadon Sancho's top 9 highest PB scores were hit against the bottom 6 sides in the Bundesliga. His other two were against Union Berlin and SC Freiburg.

Goals conceded by Bundesliga bottom 6

*Top 5 PB Scores: 316 (Fortuna Dusseldorf), 313 (SC Paderborn), 267 (Augsburg), 225 (Kosovo), 221 (Union Berlin).


Those bottom 6 Bundesliga sides conceded an average of 1.995 goals per game.


Meanwhile the bottom 6 sides in the Premier League conceded just 1.697 goals per game. This suggests that Jadon Sancho will have to improve further to hit the numbers he has in the Bundesliga if he moves to the Premier League.

Goals conceded by Premier League bottom 6

At the age of just 20, it is likely that he will improve considerably over time, but the opposition in the games when Sancho has hit high PB scores is worth considering as the Premier League's weakest teams are certainly better than the Bundesliga's weakest teams.


Conclusion


Overall, Jadon Sancho still appears a very valuable hold given his short term media dividend potential and long term prospects. If Sancho moves to another side, other than Manchester United than it is likely that his spread will widen and his price will fall. If this does happen, it will be worth being aware of the confirmation bias that will proceed with traders making points for why this is a 'good thing'. But assuming he does move to Manchester United, he could be a great longer term hold.


Sancho's style of play is likely to suit Manchester United well and his ability to create chances will likely lead to plenty of assists in an improving Manchester United side full of strong finishers. However, he will need to improve his PB scores and his ability to perform against stronger sides further.


Sancho is now at a very high price, but could rise further in price in the short term due to traders wanting to take advantage of the media dividends on offer. Furthermore, as Football Index grows, dividends increase and share-split rumours start to emerge - Sancho's price could continue grow longer term.


Despite Sancho appearing a valuable hold (If he goes to Manchester United), it is crucial here that I also mention that I think there are other players on the platform that I think are just as strong holds or even better holds. This simple point can sometimes be forgotten when so much focus is on one player like we are currently seeing. Furthermore, models predicting Sancho's future dividend returns that have been extrapolated using his returns this season are flawed in a number of ways as discussed by how his media dividends have been higher due to promotions and his best two PB scores were against the two worst teams in the Bundesliga.


For Jadon Sancho holders and non-holders, the recent rise in Sancho sets the bar high for other young players on the platform. The ceiling to Sancho's price is incredibly high and there are so many variables to consider when evaluating if he is a valuable hold (Including some I have not been able to cover in this blog), including the general success of Football Index.


Arguments for and against buying Sancho can be made, but ultimately his success as a Football Index hold will depend on where he plays next season, how he performs and what dividend increases/media promotions Football Index offer in the future.






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