The removal of In-Play Dividends certainly came as a surprise to many of us on Football Index. When the idea was first put forward to me, I was pretty disgusted by even the thought of it.
Taking away a core part of the platform, a dividend, from us? Taking away what gives a number of players a huge amount of their value. Surely this only benefits those who sit on higher-priced players and don't trade for In-Play Dividends? These were my first thoughts around three weeks ago when I came across the idea.
How times have changed. I would be lying if I said my first reaction wasn't partly because I knew the removal of IPD would negatively impact mine and a number of FIC member's portfolios.
But, the more I started to understand the reasons for the possible removal... the more I realised how this could be a good thing for the platform as a whole.
Why remove In-Play Dividends?
Removes incentive to refresh shares which reduces downward pressure on prices
IPD payouts are now too high at current low prices
IPD reward short term trading
IPD detract from Football Index's USP - the long term bet
IPD can cost FI a lot, especially with currently congested fixtures
Gives FI a better chance of advancing into new territories
For me, it is Football Index getting back to their focus on the long term bet and keeping the platform simple which is the most exciting aspect of the removal of In-Play Dividends.
Although it may well contribute, I don't think the removal of IPD will solve the fundamental problem of a lack of liquidity in this market, but it is one step in the right direction and longer-term I believe this will become a great move by Mike and the Football Index team.
Though until we see what FI announce next, to somewhat replace the hole left by the removal of IPD - I can't say the removal of IPD was definitely a good move.
Furthermore, the way that FI rather suddenly scrapped In-Play Dividends was quite brutal and has left me and many traders in a somewhat frustrating situation where we hold shares who are now much less valuable and there is currently some uncertainty over what comes in next.
How does the removal of IPD impact value of players?
There is no doubt that removing IPD negatively impacts a number of players on Football Index, but this blog and the spreadsheet, in particular, will attempt to help highlight which players are now better holds and which are now genuinely much worse holds (Following their recent price drops).
The spreadsheet below includes all outfield players who have played a total of 1500+ minutes since the start of last season. This spreadsheet has been created by exporting the new Index Edge Master Table.
G&A Player Analysis Excel Spreadsheet
G&A Player Analysis Google Spreadsheet
Top Performance Dividend Earners (Average Goal Contributions by dividend rank)
The below data shows how the players that earned the most matchday dividends since the start of last season contributed towards goals much more, on average than other players across the platform. It shows clearly how important goal contributions are in players earning dividends.
Top Goal Contributions (Average Performance Dividends by Goal Contributions)
Again, we can see here that the players who contributed to a huge amount of goals earned a huge amount of dividends.
No Longer Valuable players?
35 players over the age of 23 have provided a total of 15+ goal contributions since the start of last season and have failed to earn any match day dividends. These players appear to lose out from the removal of IPD. I have made an additional tab exclusively for these players on the spreadsheet above.
Viewing this data makes it easier to understand which players have actually lost a lot of their value and which have not.
It is worth looking at how many scores they have hit over 200/250 as this also makes a crucial difference to a player's chances of earning dividends. Furthermore, some of those players may well improve in the future and as they have proven their ability to contribute to goals often - they could bag braces/hat-tricks in the future.
This list will be worth revisiting if we do see a threshold dividend payment introduced.
Value IPD Players?
A few players that are known for being strong IPD players, but have also previously hit high match day scores could be great picks at the moment for two core reasons:
Huge recent price drops
Potential to rise from a positive announcement from Football Index
Overall, I believe the upside is now far greater than the downside on a few players who could earn match day dividends in the future.
Match Day Dividend Stand-Out Player
Firstly, I want to cover one player who is not necessarily known for his IPD potential but has stood out in particular when looking at dividend returns since the start of last season. Also, if some kind of tiered PB/threshold payment is introduced - this man would surely benefit.
Daniel Parejo £0.69 / £0.86
12 Match Day Scores over 200
4 Match Day Scores over 250
63p in Match Day Dividends since the start of last season
PB Score of 280 in his last game
Villareal faces RB Salzburg in the next round of the Europa League. When it comes to hitting high match day scores, Parejo is quite the beast and he is currently incredibly cheap! I am confident that he returns his full instant price in dividends in the next 18 months, let alone 3 years.
Relatively young 'IPD' Players
These two South-Americans have seriously dropped in price over the last 6 months, but are two of the best young centre forwards in Europe.
Lautaro Martinez £0.79 / £1.26
3 Match Day Scores over 200
2 Match Day Scores over 250
Possible future transfer speculation
Martinez' base scores are fairly low, but, as he has shown a number of times now - he certainly has braces and hat-tricks in him. His ability to occasionally hit high match day scores makes him a valuable player, especially now that he has dropped in price due to the removal of IPD.
Gabriel Jesus £0.71 / £0.86
6 Match Day Scores over 200
1 Match Day Score over 250
Price has partly dropped due to relatively poor form...so far this season
6 Match Day Scores over 200. Sorry, I just needed to write that again. He is only 23, playing for Manchester City and although he is known for his goals - he can hit pretty high match day scores too. Overall, at his current price, I think he is a great pick and could rise considerably if he can find form now that he's returned from being out with Covid-19.
These two have definitely been hurt by the removal of IPD as they are certainly known for their IPD potential. However, they both have high match day scores in them and have just got better and better over the last 12 months or so. Now that their price has dropped, now could be a good time to pick up some shares in them.
Gerard Moreno £0.63 / £0.49
4 goals and an assist in his last 5
4 Match Day scores over 200 (Including scores for Spain)
2 Match Day scores over 250 (Including scores for Spain)
PB Score of 232 in his last game
Overall, Moreno is the one on this list I am least sure of. I'd be tempted to wait a week or two before bidding on him as I suspect he could be purchased for somewhere between 40p-50p soon.
However, I do think he is too good to drop too much further. Furthermore, Villareal have been great this season, will play in the Europa League and Moreno can be incredible on his day which can result in high match day scores.
Andre Silva £0.41 / £0.63
3 braces in his last 6 games
2 Match Day scores over 200
11 goals in 14 this season
Possible transfer speculation over summer?
The more I looked into Silva's match day scores, the worse I realised they were. He doesn't suit the current matrix well at all.
However, he did not score the GWG in 2 of the recent games where he scored braces. Furthermore, he is becoming so dangerous that he could score a hat-trick in the future and also due to the fact he plays for a side that are mid-table in the Bundesliga and given he scores so frequently - I think he has a chance of gaining transfer links in the future.