IPD November/December 2020

Over the last few weeks, I have spoken about issues around liquidity countless times in blogs and in almost every episode of the Football Index Club Daily Podcast.

Today, it is best to get back to talking about football and players in particular. A huge amount of teams have 8/9 fixtures coming up within 30-day windows which could make a number of players great holds for In-Play Dividends. This may also lead to some organic liquidity.


We also have 4 months now of dividend eligible football, with no international break until late March.

Although there is incredible value throughout the market right now, today's blog will focus on In-Play Dividends in particular as I analyse whether there is actually value out there and in which players.


IPD Warning


Before getting into my analysis on IPD, it is worth pointing out that demand for 'IPD Players' appears to be generally higher right now than demand for strong 'PB/MB players'.


Although in the short term IPD players may be more profitable, it is crucial that you get the timing right on IPD players and sell ahead of others. Otherwise, you may be left holding a player who does not rise as much as players with a strong chance of earning PB/MB.


Applying a contrarian trading technique to Football Index can be fairly successful, but due to the current lack of liquidity, we may have to flow with the tide to be profitable in the short term.

Dividend yields can be excellent on IPD players but sentiment towards such players can quickly change and prices can drop if the player does not deliver what is being expected. Overall, I see buying IPD players as more speculative and closer to traditional gambling than your average buy into a PB/MB hold.


Of course, players don't have to fit into one box. But, it is worth pointing out that the higher-priced, more likely PB/MB winners have considerably lower IPD yields than many under the £1.50 mark.


IPD analysis


To carry out my analysis, I created a spreadsheet consisting of players who:

  • Have 8/9 fixtures within an upcoming 30-day IPD window

  • Provided a total of 5+ G&A since the start of last season

  • Provide a G/A at a minimum average of once every 270 minutes

  • Played over 700 minutes since the start of last season

As usual, the spreadsheets below couldn't have been made possible without the quality Index Edge Spreadsheet.


Excel IPD Nov/Dec Spreadsheet

IPD November - December 2020
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 72KB

Google IPD Nov/Dec Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gUJQkR4Ic6v9-x3wvvt9B4Erbmy5gx-3ZpheHHk4R-A/edit?usp=sharing


Within this spreadsheet, you will find the 198 best IPD players based on past data alone. There will be a few players who have perhaps not played many minutes yet who could be strong IPD holds and are not on this spreadsheet. However, from this spreadsheet, there are many players to choose from and many look set to return a huge amount of their price in IPD over the upcoming weeks.


The potential G&A and potential IPD columns are based on the notion that each player will play a full 90 minutes in every upcoming IPD game. Of course, this will not be the case and so I would advise considering this when using the data. Furthermore, there will be a large variance in what IPD yields are being predicted here and what we actually see.


Nevertheless, this spreadsheet provides a handy indicator of what kind of yields we can expect from players in IPD alone in this build-up to Christmas, where we have a frenzy of games being played.


Key Takeaways / Considerations

  • We can comfortably aim for IPD yields of 7.5% upwards in younger players and higher yields from older players

  • The spreadsheet is based on market buy prices and so yields on many players should be higher if buying at the instant sell price

  • Regularly playing, lower-priced players are likely to have the highest yields

  • Liquidity must be considered, especially for those currently without IS prices

  • Players from teams that fail to progress in the Champions/Europa League could drop in price

  • Plenty of Under 23's look set to return 5-15% of their current IS price in IPD alone

  • There are a few unknown gems who could return 50%+ of their full price in IPD if bought at the instant sell price

Key Players


I have highlighted the names of my top picks for IPD in green. I've decided to go a bit rogue with today's picks but here, below, are my top 5 stand-out players based on the information in this spreadsheet.


*I am including the IS price and G&A since the start of last season in the information below. Most players can currently be bought at closer to their IS price than market buy price. The fixtures part is within the 30-day IPD window coming up.


Angel Montoro

Angel Montoro

Team: Granada

Age: 32

IS Price: 10p

G&A: 10

Fixtures: 8


Overall, being able to sell Montoro is probably the biggest concern going into this trade. A bad injury or a Non-PB league move would be devastating. Furthermore, Montoro rarely plays a full 90 minutes.


However, with Montoro hitting a peak PB score of 240 last season, providing 10 goal contributions and with Granda top of their Europa League group - Montoro could be an absolute gem if bought for 10-12p.


Ivan Perisic

Ivan Perisic

Team: Inter Milan

Age: 31

IS Price: 28p

G&A: 17

Fixtures: 9


Game time could be an issue for Perisic in an Inter side full of options. But, with 2 goals in his last 3 Inter games and lethal strikers such as Lukaku and Martinez ahead of him - Perisic could contribute to a number of goals in Inter's upcoming games.


At 28p, Perisic could be a great hold in the short term for IPD, but could also be great value going into the Euro's and the 2022 World Cup with Croatia.


Portu

Team: Real Sociedad

Age: 28

IS Price: 46p

G&A: 21

Fixtures: 8


With 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games, Portu loves to earn In-Play Dividends. Portu's PB scores are not great, especially given how often he does contribute to goals, so I wouldn't expect many PB wins. However, he's provided 21 goal contributions since the start of last season and at just 46p, he could be a great short-term hold.


Competing with AZ Alkmaar and Napoli, Sociedad has a relatively difficult Europa League group. But, if they do progress, there is a fairly good chance that Portu's spread will tighten in the future.


Angel Correa

Angel Correa

Team: Atletico Madrid

Age: 25

IS Price: 35p

G&A: 16

Fixtures: 8


Joao Felix will be taking all the headlines lately and rightly so. I think Felix will be a much better long term hold and he is one of the most recently highlighted players. However, Correa is worth a mention here as he has 3 assists in his last 4 games and his price has dropped in half since September.


For match day dividends, Correa is an unlikely earner but for IPD alone, Correa could be a great pick at just 35p.


Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel Jesus

Team: Manchester City

Age: 23

IS Price: £1.51

G&A: 33

Fixtures: 9


Yes, Gabriel Jesus really does have an instant sell price of £1.51. Averaging a goal contribution once every 84 minutes, Jesus is the true successor to Sergio Aguero and is very likely to be in and amongst the goals in City's upcoming 9 fixtures within just 30 days.


Jesus is back from injury and has already scored two in his last two games. With so much quality around him, Jesus is likely to score plenty of goals and although City have been fairly poor in the Champions League in past seasons - there is no reason why they couldn't muster up a good run in the Champions League this season.





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