Updated: Feb 3
Football is back and prices are soaring during games due to high performance scores, goals and assists amongst other factors. If you have the time and available funds ready to do so, then you can make some hefty profits whilst the games are in play. I watched 3 games yesterday and found it interesting how the market reacted to players and so I will be sharing this with you below.
The reason I mention available funds is because in general you want to avoid chasing profits by instant selling players during a game to buy another player. Unless you are confident the player you want to buy is going to fly up in price so much so that it covers the commission paid to instant sell another player - then you should avoid instant selling to trade during the match.
Now assuming you do have funds readily available, here are a few ways you can trade during a match day:
First of all, it can be useful to have an understanding of what you get match day points for according to the performance scoring matrix.
Overall, the scoring matrix offers a reasonably fair measure of how well a player has performed. Some of the key points to bare in mind when trading during a game is the actions that are worth the most points and can often have a huge impact on a player's PB score by the end of the game:
Goal - 45 points
Winning goal - 35 points
Assist - 20
Penalty Save - 45 points (for goalkeepers)
Clean Sheet - 25 points (for defenders), 40 points (for goalkeepers)
Last man tackle - 20 points
Team win - 18
The impact of goals
Game winning goals can have a huge influence on a player's performance score as the player will get the following points added to their total score:
Shot - 3 points
Shot on target - 5 points
Goal - 45 points
Winning Goal - 35 points
Team win - 18 points
Total - 106 points
All of these points will be added during the live game too, so if a player has a very high performance score from scoring the first goal of the game early on, then it important to remember that if the opponent equalises then this PB score will drop by 53 points.
If a player scores a goal then there price will almost always increase as traders pounce on the opportunity to earn IPD. In general, it is difficult to buy a player just after they have scored without their price already increasing at least 1p / 2p (for defenders) or more and so unless you can buy the player straight after they have scored and before they have increased more than 1/2p then it is often best to avoid trying to buy goal scorers in play just for the 1p dividend payout. There are more variables to consider when buying for IPD and you can learn how more on how to profit from trading IPD here.
However, if a player does score very early on and does only increase 1/2p then it can offer a very good opportunity for a low risk bet. This is because if the player is to score again then you will almost certainly see the player's price rise a lot. Therefore, it can be very profitable to buy a forward if they score early on in a game and have increased very little in price to effectively have a low risk bet - as if they score another or get a very high PB score then their price could rise much further.
One game I watched yesterday (17/08/19) was Metz V Monaco and Habib Diallo scored a penalty for Metz early on which saw his price increase around 10%. *Often a player's price will rise even more during a game if it is discovered they are on penalties - especially if they convert the penalty. Diallo is also relatively young and had scored in his first Metz game too so it made sense that his price had increased so much after another goal. Monaco then had a man sent off in the 34th minute and as Diallo was the most likely man to score for Metz based on previous statistics, it could have been a good idea to buy Diallo during the game in the hope he would score another goal, knowing his price would increase even further. Again, this kind of trade will depend on the player's circumstance such as age, previous goal scoring record and you will have to consider how much of their price after scoring their first goal they will hold.
A few goalscorers that you may want to purchase in play if you get there quick enough are:
Young players who will excite traders
New signings who's potential PB / MB could be very high
Defenders if they have not increased by 2p yet
Early goalscorers who have not increased by more than 1p
Potential youth gems in non-pb leagues before they have increased in price
The impact of Clean Sheets
Clean sheets are the only points that are not added during the game. When a defender is on a high PB score without scoring or assisting and it is in a game where they appear likely to keep a clean sheet then sometimes you could purchase the player in anticipation for them to get a very high PB score leading to their price increasing further.
For example, yesterday (17/08/2019) another game I watched was Borussia Monchengladbach V Schalke. Nico Elvedi (Who I tipped on Facebook at 41p) started the game very well, making a lot of passes at the back, making interceptions and aside from a very poor miss from Benito Raman, looked reasonably comfortable at the back and likely to keep a clean sheet. Elvedi's price rose 7p by half time by which point he was already on a PB score of 119 without scoring or assisting. Borussia Monchengladbach did end up keeping a clean sheet and Elvedi won top defender with a PB score of 208 which saw his price rise even further.
Goalkeepers also receive an additional 40 points for a clean sheet and so this is well worth considering when looking at a goalkeeper's PB during a game. If you are following a game and you are confident the goalkeeper will keep a clean sheet then it could be worth buying the goalkeeper for IPD. Goalkeepers PB scores have slightly increased since the change in the scoring matrix, but, their PB scores are currently more unpredictable than outfield players and can change drastically depending on whether they keep a clean sheet or not.
The impact of new signings for big teams
Another player that I watched play yesterday (17/08/2019) was Dani Ceballos for Arsenal who had a terrific game (Premium members will know I highlighted him just last week at £1.73) and during this game he rose to £2.26. Ceballos looked very good throughout this game from the very start and traders watching the game could have taken advantage of this by buying early on in anticipation that a high PB score was to come as well as MB as he was a new signing for a big team. *When a new signing for a big club is having a good game then it can be a great opportunity to make a large profit if you can get on early enough. This is because the player is likely to get even more recognition as they stand out as a new signing and the anticipation builds even further based on speculation of how good the player will be for their new team.
Stand out PB scores
Throughout the day you can easily spot potentially valuable players by scrolling through the match day scores to see if any PB scores stand out relevant to the player's price and other factors too such as age and team. Often it will take time for many player's prices to increase despite hitting a high PB score, unless they are a very well known player or at the very top of the match day scores list. For example, yesterday (17/08/2019) Ahmed Elmohamady hit a high PB score of 197 without scoring, assisting or keeping a clean sheet. However, as he is an older player it took at least 10 minutes before his price started to increase from 28p. Elmohamady is now 32p as more traders have taken note of this PB score and bought in. Scrolling through PB scores on match day can be a quick and easy way of researching players, however, it is often important to buy the player based on further research and not just because of one PB score.
When buying a player due to a high PB score during a game in can be useful to see what the player is getting points for by using the scoring matrix, how good the opponent is and the circumstance of the player such as age, chance of MB, the team they play for etc.
When buying for IPD it can be useful to consider how much they have already increased, chance of them earning more IPD during the game and again the circumstance of the player. Further considerations when trading for IPD such as the spread and the dividend yield are explored here.
When watching a live game you will often have an advantage over other traders, but, you will need to act fast and buy the player quickly if you think their good performance could lead to an increase in price from high PB / MB / IPD. You also need to remember that just because a player is playing well it does not necessarily translate to a good PB score so it may be worth checking their PB score whilst you watch the game being played.
It is important to remain calm and not get carried away trying to make a quick profit by trading during a game. Trading in a game carries a lot more risk then your normal everyday trades, although if executed well you can make large returns.