How to Profit from Market Trends

Updated: Sep 13

Market trends in terms of Football Index is the way in which groups of players which share similar player characteristics, whether positive or negative, move in a particular direction over a period of time.


Profiting from market trends is a pivotal part of the Football Index Club trading strategy.


Between September 2019 - November 2020, a total of 50 players were highlighted throughout Market Trend blogs. The average price that these 50 players have peaked at since being highlighted is an incredible 48.77%. These players still remain up at an average increase of over 36% today.

More than 10 players highlighted due to upcoming market trends increased 25% or more after just 30 days

1. Staying ahead of the curve


The first step to successfully profit from market trends is to anticipate a market trend occurring before the rest of the market. Using the Market Trends section of the site you can use the calendar to see what events are coming up which could have a significant influence on the market.

The market trend table on this page can also help you anticipate changes in the market by showing the general price movements in players that share similar characteristics.


Below are some of the market trends which could develop throughout 2020:


1. Champions League / Europa League later stages in February through to May

2. EURO 2020 Play-Offs in March (Strong players for the finalists and then winners likely to rise)

3. Promoted team's players in April / May

4. Drop in Premium priced non EURO 2020 players in April - June

5. EURO 2020 and EURO Under 21's 2020 players likely to rise April - June

6. Stand out EURO 2020 players likely to fly up in price in June - July

7. Transfer Speculation / Strong Non-PB league players in July - August

8. Champions League / Europa League players late September - October

9. Transfer Speculation again in November - January 2021


2. Buying players with positive characteristics


Players with certain positive characteristics often increase more than others once a market trend emerges.


The extent to which players will increase during a market trend may depend on how many of the below player characteristics they have:

  • Young

  • Potential to move to a PB league

  • Low price

  • Stand out player for their team

  • High PB scores

  • High goal / assists record

Umar Sadiq rose 136% in just 30 days due to fitting the Europa League market trend partly due to having all of the above player characteristics

When a market trend is coming up, blog posts will be posted which attempt to identify key players with many of the above positive characteristics.


3. Timing the purchase


What can be difficult when trading within market trends is getting the timing right. Acting far in advance of other traders is key here and the information on 'staying ahead of the curve' above and the content on the site should help.


Generally, I would advise buying around 30-45 days before the key event (Which the market trend is building up towards) takes place. For example, the 'Market Trend #9 January Transfer Window' blog came out on 16th November far in advance of the January transfer window opening. The 6 players highlighted within this blog have since increased an average of 32.5% in price since this blog.


Sander Berge increased 59% just 30 days after being highlighted due to the Champions League market trend - his strong performances have led to a PB league transfer to Sheffield United

It can be easy to speculate on a market trend prematurely and not see an increase for the first few weeks, but, often it is best to act sooner rather than later. As long as the player also appears to be good value they can be worth holding onto until the anticipated trend emerges. It is also important to avoid buying potential market trend players after they have already increased in price in a short space of time.


4. Selling


The final stage in profiting from market trends is knowing when to sell. Just like buying, it is possibly better to sell too early than too late.


Often the best time to sell a player that is increasing due to a market trend is once they have already increased in price and there is still demand for the player so that you can market sell for a profit. You may not sell at their peak, but, often it is better to do this then wait until the demand for the player wears off and having to instant sell.


If the market trend is centered around a tournament, often the direction of the player's price will be largely dictated by their performances. Sometimes, it can be worth keeping the player longer term if there are likely to be more reasons to buy the player in the future.


Example 1 - Erling Braut Haland


Erling Braut Haland continued to increase massively during the Champions League group stages trend due to very strong performances. Due to there being so many factors which could have positively influenced Erling Braut Haland's price in the future, it would not have been a good time to sell Haland during this rise.

Erling Braut Haland rose 47% just 30 days after being highlighted in a market trend blog and has continued to rise to over a 150% increase since due to continuing to progress

For example, after the Champions League group stages, the below positive factors continued to positively influence Haland's price:

  • RB Salzburg remaining in an European Tournament - Europa League (Although, this was no longer relevant due to his transfer)

  • Future Transfer Speculation likely - he has since been linked with various teams and of course has since signed for Borussia Dortmund

  • Overriding Youth Trend - buying quality, young players is likely to remain a consistent trend on Football Index until the player is no longer young or they consistently play poorly in PB eligible games

  • EURO 2020 - Haland is a Norway International

  • Strong goal scoring record - this is likely to gain attention and attract future buyers

  • High chance of a change in circumstance leading to a stronger chance of earning dividends in the future (In this case it was his transfer)

On the other hand, if there are unlikely to be future reasons to buy a player after the market trend, it can be wise to sell whilst they have increased / increasing.


Example 2 - Benjamin Verbic


Benjamin Verbic was highlighted as a player that could suit the Europa League group stages.


After some strong performances in the Europa League and for Slovenia, Verbic increased 56% during this market trend.

Benjamin Verbic increased 56% during the European tournament market trend and has dropped 69.5% since this peak

However, today Verbic is currently down 8% from the price originally highlighted. This is because there were very future positive factors to buy Verbic after this trend:

  • Dynamo Kyiv were knocked out of the Europa League

  • Verbic is not particularly young

  • Lack of transfer speculation to a PB league

  • Slovenia knocked out of EURO 2020

  • Low chance of a change in circumstance that could lead to earning more dividends in the future

This is why considering future events is key when deciding whether to keep or sell players after they have risen due to a market trend.


You can find more information on selling here.


Additional key points on market trends

  • Be careful to avoid buying players due to a potential market trend too late on. Although still coming out with above market growth returns, November was the worse month for players highlighted on Football Index Club due to continuing to highlight strong PB performers too late on once this trend started to fade

  • Market trends are often driven by speculation and many players will temporarily rise without a real justification in the player's underlying value - timing of buying / selling is key

  • Speculative market movements are often carried too far in either direction. When players have increased too much, sell. When players have dropped too much, buy.



© 2019 by Football Index Club

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