Football Returns..#2

The German leagues are set to restart on May 16th following Government approval and this has immediately impacted the market with many traders seeking to find stand out players who could increase in price in the short term.


Recent Rises


Speculation of the German leagues returning first has been growing over recent weeks and this has already led to many players from these leagues increasing considerably in price.


Half of the top 24 risers (That are over 50p) over the last 20 days are from either the Bundesliga or 2.Bundesliga.

Nico Elvedi and Konrad Laimer are both up over 12% since being highlighted on the site in recent weeks

Stand out performers over the next few weeks may be more likely to rise in price as many traders will be attempting to get on the 'next big rise'and this effect could be amplified by so many new traders, yet to experience a Football Index Match Day, joining us in recent months.


Timing


However, many that have already risen recently will either drop in price or remain relatively stagnant (Compared to other returning league's players) if they do not perform as well in the short term as expected.


There are a wide range of approaches to currently take towards the market, but when considering buying players who have recently risen from these leagues, it is important to be aware of how the Bundesliga returning first is mostly leading to increases in price based on speculation and sentiment, rather than a strong fundamental change in a player's intrinsic value.

Therefore, timing the buying and selling of Bundesliga players in the short term is likely to have a considerable impact on the potential profits that are made via capital appreciation.


We may also see wild price swings on match days and before / during games in particular with traders buying into players for a number of reasons including:


  • Surprising starters (Check Line-Ups early on)

  • Formation changes

  • Player position changes

  • Early goal scorers

  • Players on high PB scores early in games

  • Young players scoring / having particularly strong performances

  • Teams playing against a team with a sending off early in a game


Trading on match days can be fairly profitable as long as you get the timing right, but in general whilst the platform grows, it is very far from an essential aspect of making great returns on Football Index.


End of the Bundesliga / 2. Bundesliga seasons


Another key consideration which reinforces how timing is key with buying players from the German leagues is that both seasons end late June.


The Bundesliga season finishes on 27th June and the 2.Bundesliga season finishes on 28th June.


Most people right now will be understandably focusing on the return to the German leagues, but it is also worth considering that it is likely other PB leagues will return once the German seasons finish and money may shift into other leagues.


Who is going to buy your shares?


Again this final point reinforces both above points that timing is key and to consider what happens once we get to the end of the Bundesliga season. It is unlikely many Bundesliga players will drop considerably as the league may be restarting again not too long after it is finished.


However, young players, players likely to gain transfer links and players playing in the Champions / Europa league may be better holds than players rising in the short term purely due to the outside chance of earning Match Day or In-Play Dividends.


It is also worth considering why other traders would buy a player in the future if you intend to sell in the short term. Players from the German leagues who have risen in price recently due to the league returning, but are unlikely to have a better chance of earning dividends in the future may not be such good purchases currently.


Can we still be profitable from buying into players from the German leagues?


Although, a lot of this blog post focuses on the downsides and risks to buying some Bundesliga / 2.Bundesliga players right now, there are still a lot reasons to buy players from these leagues.


First of all, many still appear fairly good value at their current prices and could really take off in price in the upcoming weeks due to the increased exposure. Furthermore, many traders will have missed the thrill of buying into players that are playing and so although this is not a great reason to buy a player, it may also contribute to huge price increases in some players from these leagues.


We can still be very profitable from buying into players from these leagues and it not a case of being worried these players will drop considerably in the future, it just may be a case of considering if there are better opportunities elsewhere?


Below are players from the German leagues which could be strong holds at their current prices for many different reasons explained below:


*You can click into the player's names below for their full player profiles!


Marcus Thuram

Marcus Thuram

Price: £2.05

Team: Borussia Monchengladbach

Age: 22

Position: Forward

Country: France

Top 5 PB Scores: 182, 174, 161, 141, 140

Pros:

  • Young

  • Strong goal and assists record

  • Improved further this season - high potential

  • Tenuous Premier League transfer links

Cons:

  • Increased in price considerably in recent months

  • Low PB scores

Dan-Axel Zagadou

Dan-Axel Zagadou

Price: £1.39

Team: Borussia Dortmund

Age: 20

Position: Defender (Center Back)

Country: France

Top 5 PB Scores: 275, 213, 211, 198, 173

Pros:

  • Young

  • High PB scores

  • Improved considerably this season

  • Back from injury at the end of the month

  • Favourable fixtures once Zagadou returns from injury

Cons:

  • Increased in price considerably in recent months

  • Lower price ceiling as a center back

Evan N’Dicka

Evan N'Dicka

Price: £0.96

Team: Eintracht Frankfurt

Age: 20

Position: Defender (Center Back)

Country: France

Top 5 PB Scores: 175, 141, 120, 96, 79

Pros:

  • Young

  • Favourable fixtures including a single match day against Werder Bremen

  • Transfer Links

Cons:

  • Increased in price considerably in recent months

  • Low PB scores

Weston McKennie

Weston McKennie

Price: £0.86

Team: Schalke

Age: 21

Position: Midfielder (Center)

Country: USA

Top 5 PB Scores: 171, 138, 127, 112, 106

Pros:

  • Young

  • Highest PB score came in his last game

  • Relatively low price for a young midfielder experienced in Bundesliga

  • USA International

Cons:

  • Increased in price considerably in recent months

  • Low PB scores

Willi Orban

Willi Orban

Price: £0.63

Team: RB Leipzig

Age: 27

Position: Defender (Center Back)

Country: Hungary

Top 5 PB Scores: 244, 164, 139, 135, 120

Pros:

  • High PB average

  • Champions League with RB Leipzig

  • Hungary International

  • Low price

  • Returns from injury at the end of the month

Cons:

  • Lower price ceiling as a center back

  • Not such a favourable age

Hendrik Weydandt

Hendrik Weydandt

Price: £0.31

Team: Hannover 96

Age: 24

Position: Forward (Center)

Country: Germany

Top 5 PB Scores: N/A

Pros:

  • Strong goal scoring record

  • Very Low price

  • Contract ends at the end of this season

  • Goal in each of his last two appearances (With limited minutes)

  • Hannover have favourable upcoming fixtures

Cons:

  • Price could remain very stagnant if his circumstances do not change

  • Currently in a Non-PB league with no access to earning dividends

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