FIC Weekly 19.10.20

We have seen plenty of players rise in price and many spreads tighten this week as Match Days have returned.


Price Changes in FIC October Players


A number of players have risen or seen their spreads tighten from the FIC October Players Spreadsheet this week. I have referred to this spreadsheet in a number of recent blogs and each week it has been great to see more players rise in price and instant sell price increase.


In fact, the average instant sell price of these players is now over 10% what it was when this spreadsheet was first posted on FIC at the start of this month.

Fernandes has earned 28p in Match Day Dividends and has risen 19.6% since the start of the month

I remain confident in all of the 29 players on this spreadsheet and it may be worth revisiting for those searching for players to buy to take advantage of the current bonus period.


FIC October Players Excel Spreadsheet

FIC October Players Price Differences
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Download XL • 37KB

FIC October Players Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BBhLWp3EYTmALcLBxI8xDATL56ixwDwwCrttpCjaQBw/edit?usp=sharing


Offering Players


What I have found to be a strong strategy in recent months is offering many players in my portfolio at different prices. I have set offers for almost every player in my portfolio. Some will be offered around their market price and others at much above their current market price. Even if you have a £1 player that you value at £1.49, there really is no harm in putting him up for sale at say £1.50 just in case demand suddenly surges.


Personally, I still have a number of players that I bought before order books and since the platform has changed so much, I no longer see some as such great holds, especially compared to other players. Many of these players are in the £0.50 - £2.00 price bracket and many have wide spreads.


What I am finding is that a lot of these players will still sell at their market price when demand suddenly increases, especially on Match Days and then usually a day or even just hours later, their spread will open back up. This could then create the opportunity for me to either buy back in at a considerably lower price than I have just sold at or I can use the cash from the sale elsewhere.


Either way, if you hold a player with a widespread and you are not so confident they are great value at their market price any longer, it would be very wise to put the player up for sale or make an offer at the price you are willing to sell the player at.


Two Recent Examples


1. Mattias Svanberg Sale

As discussed above, I have plenty of players up for sale or I have set offers for them. One player was Mattias Svanberg who I must've bought around 12 months ago now. He's not a bad player and I think he will have a good future. However, he infrequently has a sell price and when he does, it is often considerably less than his market price.


Therefore, I had him up for sale as if he was to sell around his market price I could most likely buy back in at a lower price or use the money elsewhere. This weekend, as he slotted a cool finish into the bottom right corner in Bologna's early kick-off, demand suddenly increased dramatically and my Svanberg shares were clinically bought from the market at £0.61.


Svanberg now has no instant sell price and it is likely that I could buy back in at about a 50% discount on the price I have just sold him at.


2. Hirving Lozano No Sale

Discussing Football Index with other traders can be really useful to bounce ideas off each other and to develop your own trading strategy. *To do exactly this, get involved in the FIC Discord Group.


On Sunday me and Index Moneyball (Kevin) were bouncing ideas off each other and I told Kevin about how I had been getting offers matched at very favourable prices and how I had set offers for most of my portfolio.


Kevin then shared with me how he held a number of Lozano shares (A great pick from his YouTube Channel) and how he had failed to sell them at a peak price (Due to not putting any offers in for Lozano) when demand surged after he scored his second on Saturday. In this example, Kevin did not even want to sell Lozano as he does look an exciting prospect who is really turning up this season. Nevertheless, if Kevin had have set an offer for say 15% above his market price, they would have quickly sold to the market and it is likely he would now be able to buy back in at 15% less than what he could have sold for.


Overall, Match Days provide a perfect opportunity to sell players at very favourable prices and more times than not, we can buy back into these players on the Monday via a bid at a lower price than what we sold for. The final point worth mentioning on this is that it can sometimes be frustrating if an in-demand player goes on to rise even further or even earn dividends and so it is important to only put offers in at prices where you would no longer value the player at.


Champions / Europa League Games


Gone are the days where you could pick out a few young, Champions / Europa League Non-PB players ahead of the group stages and quickly watch your shares fly up in price.


Last season, I highlighted 5 players who fit this category ahead of the Champions / Europa League group stages and the average price rise was 19% after just one week. I wish I could do the same this season and watch us, members, quickly make massive returns.


However, the game has changed. 12 months ago if someone said 'The Game Has Changed' in the context of Football Index you would infer they are talking about the disruption to traditional gambling. Nowadays if someone says 'The Game Has Changed' in the context of Football Index, it will often be about the introduction of Order Books.


The market has matured considerably over the last 12 months and this is actually a very good thing. especially for us traders looking to make maximum returns. Furthermore, the increases in dividends have made our holds much more valuable. But, with this maturity, there are fewer opportunities to pick up Champions / Europa League gems as most have already risen massively over the last 12 months and also because there has been a lack of new players added (IPO's). If we had have had IPO's added already, I would probably be highlighting the likes of Adam Hlozek and Karim Adeyemi (Players to remember for when they do IPO).

Watch out for Karim Adeyemi's IPO - a real prospect at Salzburg

My approach towards the Champions / Europa League games this season is to take a step back at first, see how teams line-up and then possibly make a move. With so many teams playing and so much uncertainty over how teams will line-up, I am generally against speculating on potential Champions / Europa League players this season. What I would say though is that if any players stand out as valuable already anyway and they will also be playing in one of these tournaments, that is undoubtedly a nice little bonus and certainly worth considering, especially if the player's team have a weak group. This is possibly another reason why Parejo's recent Match Day dividend winning score led to such a considerable rise as Villareal have a particularly easy Europa Leauge Group.



Overall, I will be hanging back on the Champions / Europa League for now but will be following the games closely and if I spot anything or any players of interest, I will be sharing it on the site as always.

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