FIC Weekly 17.05.20

Updated: Jun 5, 2020

What a week it has been! Football returning has been huge for the market and we have seen plenty of risers throughout the week and this weekend in particular.

Summary of the week

Throughout the week we mostly saw Bundesliga players rising in anticipation for the weekend and we also saw a few players rise huge amounts on the back of transfer links. Moussa Dembele's sharp rise from £2.70 up to a peak of £3.19 was a great reminder of the dangers of buying into players following unreliable transfer links as he has since declined down to £3.03.

This weekend many Bundesliga players increased considerably during games due to speculation, without any underlying reason.

This could have represented a great opportunity to market sell some short term holds if you viewed the player as temporarily overpriced.

We have also been informed of The Matching Engine which will be introduced as a stepping stone towards the full integration of Order Books. Football Index Club will become more useful than ever once Order Books are introduced as traders will need to focus on buying the right players and having the right strategy to avoid being left with unsellable shares.

Football Index Guide's video does a great job explaining The Matching Engine here and you can hear my thoughts on The Matching Engine here too.

FIC (Football Index Club) Blog posts and results this week

It has been a huge week for Football Index Club with 3 blogs already posted on the site!

*If you haven't already, make sure to check out the lastest When to sell on Football Index blog.

Marcus Thuram

We have seen some very promising increases in many players highlighted in recent blogs.

Football Returns..#2 Blog

Marcus Thuram has steadily risen up this week and had another strong performance this weekend showing a lot of potential and getting himself on the scoresheet with a tap-in.

*Thuram has risen from £2.05 up to £2.23 in just 9 days.

We have also seen Weston McKennie rise a considerable 18.6% rise from £0.86 to a current price of £1.02. McKennie had a frustrating game against Borussia Dortmund this weekend, but the tough-tackling central midfielder persisted and looked one of Schalke's better players.

Bundesliga Preview - Today's Games Blog

Ihlas Bebou temporarily hit a peak price of £0.62, a massive 19.2% rise just hours after being highlighted on the site. As mentioned above and in the When to sell on Football Index blog, it would have been wise to sell to the market whilst he was rising and take the profit on him as his fundamental value had barely changed, instead his rise was due to speculation. Nordi Mukiele had a similar in-game rise from £1.32 to a peak of £1.43 (+8.3%) on the same day he had been highlighted on the site.

Top risers of the week (Currently Over 50p)

Many rises this week have been driven by hype, speculation and recency bias. When considering the timing of the sale of a player, it is important to attempt to distinguish between rational rises based on underlying changes in a player's prospects of earning dividends and rises driven by temporary excitement by the market. Buying players for both reasons can be very profitable, as long as the timing is executed well.

Felix Passlack from £0.48 to £0.59 (+22%)

Felix Passlack

Passlack's recent rise has been a strange one with no change in his potential to earn dividends this week. Perhaps a combination of confusion and speculation fuelled rumours that he would be in and amongst the Dortmund squad with the Eredivisie being cancelled.

However, he is currently still on loan at Fortuna Sittard until 30.06.2020. Overall, Passlack looks very unlikely to break into the Dortmund side and his rise has been highly speculative due to him being young, cheap and on loan from a strong side.

It will be interesting to see where Passlack ends up next season, but for now, he is still very unproven and could drop in price once his future becomes clearer.

Ramy Bensebaini from £0.82 to £0.97 (+18%)

Ramy Bensebaini scored his 5th of the season against Eintracht Frankfurt this weekend and also provided an assist in this game too. Bensebaini's PB score of 149 in this game was not so high given his contribution, but his strong performance still warranted a considerable rise with him having a strong season (when he plays) for a strong side.

Ramy Bensebaini

Overall, Bensebaini does not appear to suit the PB matrix tremendously well, but he has shown again his ability to score from defence. This can lead to a nice return in In-Play Dividends and can lead to the occasional high PB score evident in his PB score of 232 against Bayern Munich earlier this season when he scored twice.

Rabbi Matondo from £1.33 from £1.58 (+18%)

Matondo's huge rise this week was driven by speculation of a strong performance against Borussia Dortmund combined with the emergence of links to Manchester United.

Rabbi Matondo

Matondo has shown glimpses of quality in the Bundesliga, but has failed to have a strong end-product on a number of occasions and lacks game time. The rumours linking him to Manchester United are very tenuous and once they fade (Which is fairly likely) his price may simmer.

Overall, Matondo's price ceiling is very high and having followed Jadon Sancho's path in joining a Bundesliga side from Manchester City - Matondo's price may stay fairly high for quite some time whilst he is young, as traders don't want to miss out on the possibility of not buying 'The next Jadon Sancho' despite him currently being miles away from reaching the standard shown by Jadon Sancho.

What’s coming up?

Tomorrow night's game, Werder Bremen V Bayer Leverkusen should be a cracker and the preview of this game can be found within the blog from earlier today here.

We also have the Berlin derby on Friday and traders may start to get their portfolio's ready for this single match day early in the week.

Union Berlin V Hertha Berlin

Key Hertha Berlin / Union Berlin Football Index Players:

Sebastian Andersson - Union Berlin (Though he surprisingly did not start today)

Christopher Trimmel - Union Berlin

Maximilian Mittelstadt - Hertha Berlin

Arne Maier - Hertha Berlin

Matheus Cunha - Hertha Berlin

Krzysztof Piatek - Hertha Berlin

Javairo Dilrosun - Hertha Berlin

Dodi Lukebakio - Hertha Berlin

Marko Grujic - Hertha Berlin

Throughout the week, I would expect to see more steady rises in Bundesliga players again leading up to next weekend's games and any players gaining transfer links will also be susceptible to considerable rises in price too.

*It is important to be aware that most traders are currently and understandably caught up in focusing on Bundesliga players right now as that is where profits can currently be found.

However, it is important to also consider the timing of the sales of Bundesliga players as once other leagues return, there may be a shift in the way the market views the attractiveness of some holds. There is great value throughout the platform and although Bundesliga players are most likely to be the best holds in the short term, if looking for longer term holds there can be many value players found throughout the market in a range of leagues.


© 2019 by Football Index Club

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