FIC Weekly 14.12.20

A new CEO, Initial Player Offerings and weekend offers have made for an exciting week on Football Index full of twists and turns.


Initial Player Offerings


This week's IPO's (Williams, Traore and Musiala) actually IPO'd at pretty reasonable prices. But, with much more proven talent dropping so significantly, there was no surprise to see little demand for the new boys.

Neco Williams

Overall, for many reasons, Football Index should have waited until the NASDAQ launch to IPO players into a healthier market using the auction-style bidding process.


New CEO - Mike Bohan


Mike's been at Football Index for years and has worked his way up from marketing director to recently becoming Football Index's new CEO. Adam Cole was unable to fulfil many of his promises in 2020 and it seems like Mike is ready to avoid making the same mistakes as we enter a new era of FI in 2021.


With little previous experience in such a role, will Mike be the man to help guide us to a £1 Billion Market Cap? Who knows? Change does seem like it could be a good thing as all the ingredients are in place for Football Index to succeed and it now feels like we just need a good cook to bring it all together.


Realistically though, it should not be too difficult for Football Index to get things back up and running again. They have the money and they have the ideas, lots of them, provided by the Football Index community. At this stage in Football Index's career, I think it is key that they get us, loyal, traders back on their side and there are plenty of ways of doing this.


It is key that we see more liquidity throughout the market and there have been plenty of innovative ideas put forward by a number of Football Index traders. Tomorrow I will be getting myself involved in the trader panel too and I hope to come out of it feeling like we are even closer to a significant change that will offer more stability on prices and confidence in the minds of traders.


I am also glad that Adam Cole remains at Football Index and will now assume the Chairman position.


Rebate Offer


Personally, I quite enjoyed this little offer. I had intended to buy some more players this weekend anyway so it just seemed like a bonus to me. It also meant that I was able to buy into some players at even lower prices.


The fact I was able to buy players at lower prices, partly because of this promotion, says a lot. Football Index are searching for ways of incentivising us to trade but the rebate offer is not a solution. It is a plaster and one that arguably makes things worse due to the downward pressure on prices which it contributes to.

Following the end of this promotion and as traders are being paid, we have seen a slight increase in plenty of player's prices and this is probably a sign that people are glad to see the promotion end and are also keen to buy in at the current low prices using their rebate funds.


Extended Deadline


Extending the dividend deadlines to 8 pm incentivised traders to buy into dividend winners.


Again, I believe this was a subtle attempt by Football Index to provide some more liquidity into the market. By extending the deadline, they made it easier for us to earn dividends meaning they would somewhat naturally be paying out more in dividends.

I would personally, and I think the consensus of traders, would like to see the Match Day dividend deadline catered to each game by making the deadline the same time as each player's team kicks off. This would add another layer of difficulty to the art of earning dividends and could make earning dividends even more exciting.


Volatility


Predicting when the market is going to hit bottom is not an easy skill. In fact, I'm not sure it is even possible to get this part of Football Index 100% correct at the moment. On some players, you can make wise guesses, but because there are so many external uncontrollables with Football Index possessing the power to change our bets or provide liquidity at any minute.


Furthermore, we are likely to feel like we have hit the bottom, see a rise and then witness the market fall even further. Until Football Index make some substantial changes, the volatility is likely to continue.


The good news is that this presents the opportunity to profit by trading in and out of players as mentioned in the previous two FIC Weekly's.


In recent weeks, I have been trading quite frequently and have been using a dollar-cost averaging approach by slowly topping up on players at prices I believe to be very valuable. Some days I will buy larger quantities than others and by doing so I am likely to buy some players who continue to decline, but I am also quite likely to buy into players when they do hit a bottom.


The most important thing for me is that I buy at prices I believe to be very good for myself where I see the potential for profit.

Since the start of last season, Havertz has earned 86p in dividends. At £1.28, he appeared a bargain

Using this method, I went in heavily on Kai Havertz yesterday buying the young German at £1.28. I now have the option to sell him for a 28% profit, proving how there are still opportunities in this crazy market.


Anyone who bought Neymar at below £4 during his injury will also be very aware of the possibilities around us right now and these are only two examples within the last 24 hours.


The Endowment Effect


'The endowment effect is the finding that people are more likely to retain an object they own than acquire that same object when they do not own it.'


It can be tricky to let go of shares that you have held for a while, especially when you are sitting at a hefty loss. But, in these volatile days, we are seeing some ludicrous drops on some players, whilst others remain relatively steady.

To maximise profits, the inconsistencies in the drops across different players should be taken advantage of.

For many months, I sat back and waited for something to happen. That 'something' (The promised liquidity etc) may still happen as I still anticipate Football Index's intervention especially as we get closer to Christmas.


However, I don't want to wait around, feeling frustrated by the many avoidable problems and capital depreciation which Football Index are mostly to blame for, whilst there are ways to make more money on Football Index.


The current mechanism is far from perfect and yes it may be frustrating paying up to 4% in commission to Football Index and taking some hefty losses on players, but I also see now as a great time to shift money around and prepare for better things to come. Obviously, I wouldn't advise doing this for the sake of it, but it is a simple case of selling players if you do see better value elsewhere.


FIC Value 32


To help find the most valuable players on the platform, I have used and adapted the Index Edge spreadsheet.


Plenty of Football Index Club content has focussed on lesser-known players. However, in this market, I believe it is best to keep things simple and focus on the more proven players. The below players have been found by sorting the spreadsheet by number of PB Scores 200+.


The below Index Edge Adapted Spreadsheet Includes Price/Average 12 Month Price) & (Includes Price/Peak 12 Month Price)


Index Edge Under 26's Yields Prices Excel Spreadsheet


Football Index Under 26's Yields
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 79KB

Index Edge Under 26's Yields/Prices Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1irW8qcSPTwVd_4U2T_Jpailpk5CubPwqzqcwEiXNGZE/edit?usp=sharing


I have also taken into account players who have not hit high scores since the start of last season and also scanned through the spreadsheet to add a few players whose yields could be particularly high based on media dividend potential.


As I like to focus on generally younger players, I have mostly included players under 25. I have made exceptions for Bruno Fernandes, Neymar and Paul Pogba because their returns are so high and they are all still under the age of 29.


Achraf Hakimi

Anthony Martial

Benjamin Pavard

Bruno Fernandes

Christopher Nkunku

Diogo Jota

Donny Van De Beek

Erling Braut Haaland

Gabriel Jesus

Jack Grealish

Jadon Sancho

James Maddison

Joao Felix

Jonathan Bamba

Joshua Kimmich

Kai Havertz

Kylian Mbappé

Leon Bailey

Marcus Rashford

Martin Odegaard

Mason Greenwood

Mikel Oyarzabal

Neymar

Nicolas Pepe

Paul Pogba

Phil Foden

Reece James

Renato Sanches

Serge Gnabry

Sergio Reguilon

Theo Hernandez

Timo Werner

Trent Alexander-Arnold




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