In this week's analysis I will be covering which players have increased over the last week, which players could increase in price longer term and what is coming up.
Risers this week
The top 4 risers this week are all lower priced players who have been bought due to their improved circumstances in terms of their potential to earn dividends.
Usually in the FIC weekly, under £0.50 players are not mentioned so much as when they increase it is usually due to 'pumping' or other reasons unrelated to their underlying value. However, this week the 4 players that have increased the most have increased for valid reasons, including those very low priced players.
Max Kruse has increased 54% due to returning to the Bundesliga as he has recently signed for Union Berlin.
Marco Sportiello (Atalanta's reserve goalkeeper) has increased 34% due to Pierluigi Gollini's recent injury.
Joe Bryan and Josh Onomah have both increased 28% due to strong play-off performances and Fulham's promotion.
Overall, all four players may not be such strong value and may not earn dividends next season, but there is no doubt that they now have a better chance of earning dividends in the future due to more game time in PB leagues.
These four players' increases show us two things:
Some players in the lower end are continuing to rise huge amounts
Increases are mostly taking place when a player's potential to earn dividends clearly improves
Sergio Reguilon (up 19% this week) and Joao Cancelo (up 8% this week) are two full-backs who have recently earned dividends. The main takeaway from their recent increases is the importance of patience. Both have shown strong PB potential throughout the season, but have been rotated leading to their prices declining at points.
Their recent rises in price show how profitable in can be to buy value players when they are being left out of the side (Especially via bids using the Matching Engine) only to sell once they are back in action or hitting form and have consequently increased in price. Patience is required with such a method, but this strategy can be implemented on a range of players.
Reactive market/lack of speculation
All risers are speculative by nature, but currently we are only seeing rises in reaction to changes of circumstance or strong performances.
Since the introduction of wide spreads and the introduction of the Matching Engine, there has been a general lack of confidence in many players and there has been much less speculation, other than when a player really stands out.
Those who would usually rocket due to speculation caused by pre-season games, are not increasing as much as they usually would as there is more risk caused by the removal of the instant sell function. *Amine Gouiri is a perfect example of this.
In the past, players would frequently increase in price considerable amounts purely due to traders spending time researching and deciding to buy players who could be of value given their potential to earn dividends in the future.
Due to the wide spreads and lack of liquidity throughout areas of the market, few players are increasing in price based on speculation.
Instead for a players price to move, there needs to be a fundamental change in their chances of earning divdiends. Once Phase 2 is finally implemented, confidence returns and spreads eventually tighten - there is a strong chance that there will be more price increases that are not simply caused by a reaction to a new circumstance making a player more valuable.
FIC Squad - 18 highlighted players
18 players have been analysed and highlighted on Football Index Club this week. In the short term, it is unlikely that many of these players will increase in price due to a lack of game time, wide spreads and the reasons covered above. However, longer term many could be very strong holds, especially if bought within their wide spreads.
These players were highlighted on Football Index Club because their prospects for earning dividends in the future are likely to improve.
As we have seen this week, when a player's chances of earning dividends improve (Via more game time in a PB league etc) often their price rises.
Furthermore, many of the FIC player's prices are not already built up purely on past PB scores, leaving plenty of room for their price to grow over the next 12 months.
However, some of these players may lack game time next season and could consequently remain relatively stagnant in price.
What's coming up?
We have a very exciting few weeks coming up with both the Europa League and Champions League. Such congested fixtures will make the upcoming weeks more exciting and it is likely we will see further rises in a number of players from these tournaments.
It is worth pointing out that players in the Europa League quarter finals have a lower chance of earning matchday dividends than those playing in the Champions League quarter finals.
This is because the Champions League quarter finals are spread over four different matchdays where-as the Europa League quarter finals are being played over two matchdays.
Overall, many player's prices have already increased due to the possibility of them earning matchday or In-Play dividends during the Champions/Europa League. It may be risky to buy many of these players who have increased already recently because if knocked out, their price could drop and it is fairly likely that their spread will widen.
We also have Ligue 1's return to look forward to, returning on 21/08/20 with Marseille facing St Etienne.