FIC Weekly 02.08.20

The final PB league has just drawn to a close and we have a lot to look forward to over the upcoming leagues.


Players with the below characteristics have increased in price in particular this week:

  • Players that have a strong chance of playing in a PB league next season (Championship Play-offs/transfer)

  • Stand-out Serie A players (5X IPD earners in particular)

  • Goalkeepers

  • Transfer Targets

Luca Gagliano (A young forward from Cagliari who earned 10p in IPD recently), Ashley Young (Who earned 15p in IPD) and Joao Cancelo (Who earned 10p due to winning top defender in July) have risen the most as a percentage this week (Of players overs £0.50).


Joao Cancelo earned 10p in TOTM dividends

Traders have been focusing on players that are earning dividends or will be earning dividends in the short term in particular and since the introduction of the 5X IPD promotion, the market has been more reactive to strong performances


Opportunities


Ligue 1 IPD Players


Traders are perhaps less willing to buy into players before strong performances take place due to the concern of being left with a hard to sell share with a wide spread if the player does not turn up.


However, there are still few competitive bids being placed on the majority of the lower end of the market and as mentioned in the recent 5X IPD Payouts blog there certainly is a lot of value out there right now.

Bingourou Kamara has increased 22% since being mentioned on FIC 5 days ago

It could be very profitable to take advantage of the wide spreads in Ligue 1 players by buying via the Matching Engine now. Spreads are likely to tighten once goals, assists and clean sheets lead to an increase in demand.


Transfers


We have seen a number of players increase in price recently due to transfer speculation. With the current wide spreads on many players, traders have been reluctant to speculate on possible transfers as much as we would usually see at this point in a season.


The majority of players that will move team this summer will not earn media dividends, but some may see their chances of earning dividends next season dramatically improve.


It will be worth keeping an eye on a number of lower profile players moving to strong PB league sides where there chances of earning dividends could improve.


Fortunately, the lack of enthuisasm around many lower profile players will likely lead to a longer waiting period before such a player rises considerably.

It took several hours for Mohammadi to rise in price following the first Leeds United transfer links today

Where-as in the past, such players would often rocket in price straight away. Whilst there is less momentum and less liquidity than we would usually see, buyers can take advantage of many opportunities.


Pre-season friendlies


This week a few players have risen in price due to performing well in friendlies. We may see more, similar rises in the weeks that follow.


It is worth pointing out that the context of friendly games is crucially important to consider before taking the plunge on a teenager who's scored a number of goals. For example, Gouiri scored two goals in OGC Nice's friendly yesterday and increased 3.46% in price.


Amine Gouiri increased in price after scoring twice against a very weak side yesterday

Although he did finish well in this game, it is worth pointing out that the opposition were a very weak side that play in the Slovak Super Liga (Fortuna Liga).


Rhian Brewster's rise to £3.83 not long after he scored against Tranmere Rovers and Bradford City is a great example of how buying into players after pre-season friendlies can not go so well.


However, it can be interesting to watch pre-season friendlies to see how teams shape up and view how particular players perform. Goals and assists grab attention and can lead to immediate rises, especially in young players, but watching full games is much more useful to get an idea of a player's suitability to the PB matrix.


Though as mentioned, such performances should not be weighted with so much significance especially as various biases can influence decision making after only watching a small sample size of a player.


Champions/Europa League


Finally, the next few weeks will present many opportunities for players to earn huge dividend payouts via the upcoming gold match days for the Champions/Europa League.


Many of the most likely dividend earners are already at premium prices, but depending on which teams progress even further - it is likely that many opportunities will present themselves.


We may see spreads tighten in many Champions/Europa League players as speculation could lead to further demand given the huge dividend payouts on offer.


Conclusion on the week


Overall, there are four areas of the market where I expect to see money flow over the upcoming weeks

  • Value Ligue 1 players (Especially those with strong IPD potential)

  • Transfer Targets

  • Stand-out performers from pre-season (Especially youth)

  • Champions/Europa League

Out of these four areas of the market, value Ligue 1 players that can be picked up via matched bids at considerable discounts on market prices could be the most profitable area over the next 3/4 weeks.


In the short term, strong performers from the Champions/Europa league and players that gain strong transfer lnks are likely to rise the most.

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