Some areas of the market have started to recover and grow, whilst other areas of the market continue to drop. In this blog, I will be using data to find the most valuable players on Football Index in the lower end of the market.
FIC Joins Index Edge
Before I get into the analysis, I want to announce that Football Index Club will shortly be joining Index Edge! All of my content from Friday will be going straight onto the Index Edge site and I will be able to arrange for all members of FIC to continue their memberships over on Index Edge.
This will result in:
More player analysis/scouting
Access to Data Spreadsheets, custom graphs and regularly updated data
Access to everything else on Index Edge
More advice on using data to find value players
More members joining the Discord Group
All of my content plus all of Index Edge's content for just £6.99
I will send emails out to members of FIC on how you will gain access to Index Edge in due course
Is there value in under 50p Players?
There is no disputing that the top end of the market earns more in Media Dividends and TOTM dividends.
But, how does the top end of the market compare with the lower end of the market when looking at dividend yields based on match day dividends alone?
All of the data in this blog has been sourced using spreadsheets found on Index Edge (Access coming soon) and the data is from the start of the 2019-2020 season. The data below only includes players who have posted at least one match day score.
Top 100 Players Average Match Day Dividends / Buy Price - 12.06%
Under 50p Players Average Match Day Dividends / Buy Price - 5.66%
So first of all, we can see that the top 100 players earn more than twice as much in dividends as a percentage of their price as the under 50p players do.
Highest Match Day Dividends / Buy Price Area of the Market
Unsurprisingly, there are some players under 50p who have returned a tremendous amount of their price in match day dividends. 16 players under 50p have returned over 100% of their current buy price in dividends since the start of last season.
Overall, the top end of the market is generally better for match day dividend winners. But, the very best dividend yields are likely to be found in lower-priced players. Finding these players is going to be very difficult and generally speaking, it would be wiser to focus on the best players on the platform (Who are naturally more expensive). However, below are a few gems who could be worth a punt given their particularly low prices.
A cautious approach when delving into the lower end of Football Index
The removal of the instant sell function (IS'ing back to Football Index) makes finding players with intrinsic value vital. Some players at the lower end are unlikely to have a sell price at various times throughout the season and this should be taken into account when considering these players.
Furthermore, lower prices are usually a reflection of a player's lower chances of earning dividends. With this being said, some lower-priced players can absolutely fly up in price and also earn dividends. Only a couple of weeks ago I was carrying out some research and came across Cesar Azpilcueta at 10p. Since then, he has since risen to over 60p and earned 28p in Match Day Dividends.
The desperation for sellers stuck holding lower-priced players?
Having personally bought into a number of players in the lower end of the market over the past 3 years, I have been left with some fairly dead holds. Players who I just don't really want in my portfolio any longer due to their low chances of earning dividends.
I have even sold some of these players at exceptionally low prices just for the relief of ridding them of my portfolio. I have then been putting the money into players I think are better value.
Ratios are always key.
What selling these players at such low prices did teach me was that it is likely some traders are going to be so desperate to get rid of some of these lower-priced players that they will even sell at irrationally low prices. This could create an opportunity for us to profit.
Best Value Players from £0.00 - £0.50
Buy Price: £0.50
Sell Price: £0.41
Top 5 Scores: 236, 225, 219, 212, 179
Suso has been a frustrating hold for many Football Index traders over the last two seasons. Under the old Match Day Scoring matrix, he was a real 'PB beast' but it has taken him time to adjust to playing for Sevilla and his match day scores have also taken time to improve.
But, he has improved lately with 3 goals and one assist in his last 8 games. In December 2020, Suso hit a score of 236 earning match day dividends for the first time since August 2019. Sevilla faces Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League in exactly two weeks time.
Buy Price: £0.50
Sell Price: £0.27
Top 5 Scores: 191, 186, 184, 179, 178
Calabria definetely has the potential to hit high Match Day scores in the future.
Calabria's scores of 191 and 186 came in games where Calabria did not provide any goals or assists. If he was able to contribute to goals more often in the future, he would be able to hit very high scores.
AC Milan also have some cracking fixtures coming up with Crotone, Spezia and then Red Star Belgrade (Europa League) coming up next.
Buy Price: £0.48
Sell Price: £0.28
Top 5 Scores: 200, 192, 186, 179, 165
Caci has been in strong form recently and has recently shown his potential to hit high Match Day scores. In January he hit scores of 163, 179 and 192 with only 1 assist and 0 goals in these 3 games. If Caci can add more goal contributions to his game, we could see him start to hit scores over 200.
Buy Price: £0.45
Sell Price: £0.34
Top 5 Scores: 359, 230, 225, 209, 205
Although Ceballos has only hit one score over 200 this season (209), he did show his ability to hit very high match day scores last season.
Ceballos has not had the best season and Odegaard's arrival only puts Ceballos further down the pecking order at Arseanl. But, he is an incredibly talented player who possesses high match day scoring potential. With the Europe League coming up, Ceballos could feature more in the short term and possibly rise in price.
Buy Price: £0.42
Sell Price: £0.34
Top 5 Scores: 219, 204, 194, 191, 167
Brekalo's match day scores are not particularly great. His top 3 scores came in the Europa League last season when the 1.25 multiplier was applied. But, Brekalo is a real talent and I think he has a good chance of rising during the EURO's this summer. Brekalo is a Croatia international and has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 Croatia starts.
Buy Price: £0.31
Sell Price: £0.21
Top 5 Scores: 193, 192, 186, 161, 150
Poulsen is not going to start regularly and even when he scores a goal or two, he may not earn match day dividends. But, will he return 21p in dividends over the next 3 years? I personally think so.
What I think is even more likely than this though, is that he does hit some run of form in the Bundesliga over the upcoming seasons and consequently rises in price. Yesterday, Poulsen scored a brace in the DFB-Pokal and he may well feature in both the Champions League and at the EURO's.