Game-Winning Goals (GWG) have a huge influence on a player's match day score and can often be the difference between a player earning match day dividends or missing out. In this blog we will take a look at the influence of the GWG on player's under the age of 24's PB scores and this blog will attempt to highlight players who's PB scores could improve considerably due to their potential to score more GWG's in the future.
How many points do you get for a GWG?
The Match Day scoring matrix is here to stay for the 2020/2021 season and so now is a great time to start planning for match day dividend winners ahead of next season, especially as dividends could be increasing a huge amount very shortly.
Under the Match Day scoring matrix 35 points are awarded for a game-winning goal, but many points are also accumulated which makes a game-winning goal worth a total 101 points as can be seen below:
Shot - 3 points
Shot on target - 5 points
Goal - 40 points
Game-Winning Goal - 35 points
Win - 18 points
Total - 101 points
How great a difference do GWG's make to a player's chance of earning dividends?
So first of all it can be useful to see how high a PB score is needed to earn match day dividends. Across all players on Football Index, the average match day dividend winning PB score for silver/gold match days is 236. Therefore, a PB score of 236+ will be used as a benchmark for a high peak PB score throughout this blog.
As we can now see, the points awarded for a GWG make up 42.7% of the 236 points which can be regarded as a high peak PB score.
GWG's clearly make a huge difference.
The extent to which a GWG influences a player's PB score can depend on the player's position. There have been 49 PB scores of 236+ hit by under 24's on Football Index this season. Below are the percentage of PB scores over 236 hit by under 24's that included a game winning goal, by different position.
Data from Index Edge
Defenders 6/13 PB scores included a GWG - 46.15%
Midfielders 13/24 PB scores included a GWG - 54.16%
Forwards 12/14 PB scores included a GWG - 85.71%
The results show the significance of GWG's on a player's ability to hit high peak PB scores and it is forwards who need GWG's the most as they generally have lower base PB scores. Forwards also score more often and so these results are not so surprising.
Finding players with potential to hit higher PB scores in the future based on their potential to score GWG more frequently
It can be useful to find players who are likely to score the GWG more frequently in the future as such players have a better chance of earning match day dividends in the future and may also rise in price once their PB scores improve.
The last context to PB scores - form blog showed the significant profits which can be made from finding players who's PB scores improve.
There are a few ways to attempt to find players who's PB scores could improve based on their potential to score GWG more frequently and below we will look further into the two main methods.
Players with high base PB scores
Base PB scores are a player's PB score without bonuses added on, so they are PB scores without goals, game winning goals, assists, clean sheets or win/loss points.
Base PB scores do not always suggest a player has the potential to hit a high peak PB score in the future as many players will not accummulate the bonus points in the future. However, for young players who have a strong chance of gaining more bonus points in the future, base PB scores can be a great indicator of a player's potential to hit high peak PB scores.
For example, if a player hits high base PB scores and then moves to a much stronger side that wins frequently, it is likely the player's PB scores will improve considerably.
In the spreadsheet below you will find U24's who have previously hit a base PB score of 175+ before. Those on this list who have the potential to score/assist often in the future or secure a transfer/loan to a better side could improve their PB scores and possibly be strong holds (Depending on their price). There are also some players (Trent Alexander-Arnold for example) who's PB scores are already so strong that they do not need to score/assist more frequently or move team as their PB scores are already strong enough to earn match day dividends regularly.
The base PB score data in this spreadsheet has been sourced using the Player Base Scores dashboard found on Index Gain.
Base PB scores Google Spreadsheet
Base PB Scores Excel Spreadsheet
Stand out players with high base PB scores
Players on this list who have high potential to score goals and could also be playing for a stronger team that win more frequently next season could be particularly strong holds.
Many Defensive midfielders have fairly high base PB scores due to their involvement in games, especially as they pass often by providing the link between defenders and midfielders, but many will not hit high peak PB scores often due to their lack of goal threat.
Some of the players who's PB scores could improve next season (Depending on which team they play for) could be:
It is worth pointing out that, the expectation of these player's PB scores to improve is already factored in to many of their prices. However, many could still be great value holds.
Another way we can find players who's PB scores are likely to improve is by searching for players who score frequently, play for strong sides that win often, but have failed to score the GWG often.
Lucas Ocampos was a perfect example of a player highlighted on Football Index Club in recent months due to rarely scoring the GWG but frequently scoring. Not long after being highlighted on the site he won match day dividends by scoring the GWG and rocketed up in price.
The below spreadsheet includes all under 24's that have scored 8+ goals this season. By viewing the player's GWG% we can see which players PB scores could improve in the future.
Kylian Mbappe certainly stands out for example. PSG's win percentage is a very high 81%, but out of all of Mbappe's 23 goals in PB eligible games this season, he has only scored 3 GWG's (13%). Mbappe's PB scores are very likely to improve in the future as he is likely to score the GWG more frequently in the future.
The players who stand out from this spreadsheet in particular are those with a low GWG% that will be playing for a team with a high win% in the future. Those with a high peak base PB are most likely to hit a high peak PB score in the future if they manage to score the GWG more freuquently too.
Goalscorers GWG Google Spreadsheet
Goalscorers GWG Excel Spreadsheet
Stand out goalscorers
Below are the players from this list who's chances of hitting high PB scores could improve in the future due to a possible transfer/loan, low GWG% or due to their team having a very high win% compared to the amount of times the player has scored the GWG.
This blog post focuses on U24's on Football Index in particular and although it does not address many in-depth issues around certain players and how their mentality amongst other factors can influence their chances of scoring the game-winning goal, this blog can help highlight the importance of player's scoring GWG's.
It is also worth pointing out that there are many players who have low PB scores despite scoring the GWG often and some of which may see their PB scores fall next season.