Context to PB scores - form

Player's price often fluctuate based on form and to get a clearer picture of a player's chances of earning match day dividends, it can be useful to consider how the player's PB scores vary throughout a given season.


The data used in the spreadsheet below was created using Index Edge.


PB Average Changes Spreadsheet

PB Average Changes
.xlsx
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VhwMssjU51lssKu31qeVCsMkzWxrNtIrydAg106yZos/edit#gid=286027204

You can dowloand this spreadsheet or find it in Google Sheets.


Although PB average is not a great indicator of a player's potential peak PB scores, it provides us a fairly useful indication of how a player's general performances have changed over time.


The below sections cover my findings from analysing the PB average changes in U24's on Football Index from the 1st to the 2nd half of the season.


1st Half By Rank


This sheet orders the players by their PB averages from the start of the season up to 01/12/19.


As these young players had performed very well, most of their prices had increased considerably by 01/12/19.


What was interesting was that players such as Martin Odegaard and Youri Tielemans were in the top 8 players, but dropped out of the list altogether by quite some way between 01/12/19 - 23/06/20

Youri Tielemans' PB average position rank has dropped 155 spaces in the 2nd half of the season

Those highlighted in green have kept their standards high in the 2nd half of the season, whilst those highlighted in red have had much lower PB scores in the 2nd half of the season.


1st half by % Difference


This sheet orders the top U23 performers by % difference and this is where we can really identify who could, arguably, still be overpriced due to rising because of strong performances earlier in the season.


As you can see, 7 of the 8 biggest decreases are players who's form has dropped in the 2nd half of the season.


Suat Serdar stands out as his price has actually risen 43% since 01/12/19, despite his PB average dropping considerably, down 70 positions.

Suat Serdar and Amine Harit

Amine Harit's PB average has also suffered in the second half of the season, dropping 146 positions and his price has dropped 10%.


Serdar and Harit's drops highlight the importance of considering if a team is overachieving, especially if they are playing under a new manager. David Wagner's arrival at Schalke led to a very strong start to the season, but they have gone backwards since.


Martin Odegaard's lower PB scores in the second half of the season also helps to demonstrate how the market may focus on a player's PB scores throughout the season, but may fail to recognise a dip in form. Odegaard has risen a huge amount in price in recent months, but this spreadsheet shows his PB scores had been much lower in the second half of the season. Since La Liga has returned his PB scores have continued to be fairly low resulting in a drop in price. *Odegaard's longer term prospects do still appear very positive though, which is one of the main reasons he has increased in price.


2nd half by Rank


This sheet orders the players by their PB averages from 02/12/19 to 23/06/20.


Many quality young players started to gain more game time in the second half of the season and this helped to contribute to 11 new players taking their spots in the top 23 list. 8 of these 11 players had not started 8 or more games in the 1st half of the season.


The difference between the lists from the first and second half of the season show how extrapolating past data can sometimes be dangerous if the player's price is already built up on their past PB scores alone, especially if there is a reasonable chance they will fail to sustain their strong form.


It also shows how anticipating which players will play more frequently in the future can be very profitable as player's circumstances can easily change.

Alphonso Davies

2nd half by % Difference


Of the players who have hit high PB scores in the second half of the season, it has been the new additions to the list which have increased in price the most. Alphonso Davies, Renato Sanches, Manuel Locatelli and Ismaila Sarr have all risen over 100% in price since as they have developed in the second half of the season.


What this shows is how recent performances have a huge impact on the demand for a player. Noticeably, all but James Maddison have risen in price since 01/12/19 as their PB scores have continued to be strong. Maddison's PB scores have been lower in the second half of the season and his price may have also dropped due to the fading Manchester United transfer links,


Conclusion


Although this blog fails to addres the many other factors influencing a player's price such as peak PB scores, transfer speculation and media dividends - it proves the importance of the context of a player's form.


What this data shows us is that a player's form and increased game time has a huge impact on their price. It highlights how both using a larger sample size of PB scores and considering the recency of PB scores can be useful.


When considering a player's past PB scores, it can be useful to see if there has been any developments over time and consider why this may be; more game time, positional change, new manager, new formation etc.


Peak PB scores are undoubtedly more relevant than PB averages, but the spreadsheet above proves the importance of considering form and shows us the profits which could be up for grabs by picking the right U24's before their PB scores improve considerably (Which is what FIC will continue to do).

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