Updated: Feb 3
IPO's are going to be released this Monday
Before I go on to discuss which type of players it is currently best to buy and which type of players to currently avoid, it is worth mentioning that mass IPO's will start to be released this Monday. More information on this can be found here. Therefore, we may see a drop in the footie over the next week meaning it may not be the best time to spend considerable amounts as some traders will be selling to fund IPO purchases.
As always, if the footie does drop due to IPO's being released then it is nothing to worry about as it is due to a reasonably rational reason. Furthermore, there are so many gems currently on Football Index that the IPO's (Which will likely be released at high prices) make existing holds look even better value in comparison over time and so the drop (If there is one) will almost certainly be temporary.
Catching Performance Buzz Rises
We are seeing significant rises in player's prices during and after games in which players hit strong PB scores.
For example, Giovani Lo Celso *Highlighted on 29th October at £1.75 rose over 20% to a peak price of £2.11 after recently hitting a strong PB score of 304 in the Champions League.
How does this impact current holds?
1. Focus on PB players
As the market is currently heavily focused on players hitting strong PB scores to compete for the increased match day dividends on offer - it may be wise in the short term to have a portfolio consisting of many players competing in many PB eligible games.
If a player has not increased a considerable amount in price recently and they do go on to hit a high PB score in the coming weeks, it is likely their price will increase significantly. Therefore, it is better to have players which;
Have more fixtures because that creates more opportunities for a stand out strong performance buzz score - for example, if they are playing in EURO 2020 qualifiers / Champions League / Europa League
Characteristics which could lead to them hitting a strong peak PB score - for example, attacking midfielders, attacking full backs, forwards which often score / assist a lot
The key is also to be patient, now more than ever. If a player is out of favour, but, has all of the attributes to put in strong PB scores - they are often worth holding until they inevitably do hit a high PB score.
Prices on match days are becoming more volatile due to the enhanced benefits of potentially earning match day dividends.
This can lead to bad decisions and so I would generally avoid chasing profits by rushing to buy a player that is rising quickly in price due to one good performance. If they have not risen yet, you may be able to make a profit by buying a player on a considerably high PB score.
The benefit of players rising due to high PB scores is that if you are patient, it creates many opportunities to make large profits on match days as you can often sell existing shares after one very strong performance at peak prices to the market for a considerable profit.
Alternatively, if you are confident that your player is able to fairly consistently put in strong peak PB scores then of course it may be worth holding for the dividends that they may earn you.
The main factor to consider after a strong PB Buzz performance when deciding whether to sell during / just after the match or to hold for a future rise / more dividends is to consider what direction the market is heading.
For example, if the player is also going to be playing at EURO 2020 / Champions League / Europa League, is young or is likely to have a strong media pull (Including Transfer Speculation) it may be wise to hold as these factors will attract even more demand over time. Trend-Alexander Arnold has continued to keep rising in price after recent very strong PB performances as he has so many of the above factors going for him as a young, English player at a team that has a strong Media Pull and will likely be in the later stages of the Champions League.
Hold players which will contest for PB - the more fixtures often the better
Avoid buying after sharp price rises
Buy players which have the attributes to hit high peak PB scores
Sell at peak prices
2. Stagnating non-pb league players
Whilst the focus remains on players regularly playing in PB-eligible games, those who are not playing regularly in PB-eligible games and are unlikely to do so in the near future are stagnating or even falling in price. What I would advise as always is considering the length of time you are happy to hold these players. As mentioned in my post from August here, 'Considering the dividend yield over a 6 year period can be very useful to make rational decisions and can help you avoid getting unknowingly sucked into ‘bubbles’.
Some youth players like Mason Greenwood who I mentioned in this blog was a risky trade have decreased significantly in price since the dividend increase. However, you may also hold some youth players who are likely to have a very good dividend yield over the coming years at their reasonably low prices.
If you are confident that these players have a strong chance of earning future dividends by being called up to their first team in a PB league or by securing a transfer to a PB league then they may well be worth keeping. Patience again is key here. However, it certainly does depend on how long it will be until your players will be playing in a PB-eligible game. Aside from the demand for players with transfer speculation, the overriding trend for the next 3-4 months is almost certainly going to be to buy players regularly playing in PB-eligible games.
Younger players currently in non-pb leagues who are proven against stronger sides playing in PB leagues and are likely to secure a transfer in the near future are currently better holds than youth that are unlikely to get any game time in a PB league this season. For example, players such as Dani Olmo or Erling Braut Haland or others highlighted here still have a relatively strong chance of earning dividends this season via a transfer / playing for their national side or in a European Tournament.
Where-as youth players such as Umaro Embalo or Rayhaan Tulloch who both play for youth sides of teams in non-pb leagues currently have almost no access to potentially earning dividends and so the demand for these players is very low leading to their prices stagnating or falling.
Unless you do not actively trade I would recommend selling players who have almost no access to earning dividends in the short term and then considering buying back in in a few months time having made more from PB players in that space of time.
There is currently very little demand for players in non-PB leagues with very little access to earning dividends
Deciding to keep or sell non-pb league players may depend on how frequently you trade
Some non-pb league players which will have better chances of earning dividends via a transfer are worth keeping hold of