Updated: Feb 3
One of the most difficult decisions you will have to make on Football Index is when to sell your shares in a player? Starting off with the basics on this issue, patience is key. Now one thing to note is that patience is very different to stubbornness. If a player is falling in price rapidly and there is good reason for that then it may be wise to sell. For example, if a player's price has recently reached a spike because there had been rumours they were being transferred to Manchester United, but, suddenly a credible news source confirms this is definitely not going ahead, then yes it may be wise to sell - if the player's price is still above the price they were before the initial rumours. However, if there is a steep drop on a player due to an injury and it has been confirmed that they will be back in the next 4 weeks, then patience may well be key.
Of course this will depend on whether you believe you can use the funds freed up from selling the injured player to make more profit than you would if you were patient and waited for the player's price to start to return to what it was before the injury. In these extreme cases, often it is best to sell if you hear the news first and are able to sell ahead of other traders before the price has dropped. If you do not sell straight away and the player's price has already dropped dramatically then often it is best to wait and it is likely the player's price, if they are relatively young, will recover in price.
From my experience, it is best to sell when others are buying and buy when others are not or are selling. By doing so you can ensure you sell to the market which of course is almost always preferable to instant selling. However, if the reasons to purchase are likely to last for a much longer time then keep the player. For example, Bruno Fernandes has been linked to many big teams lately and whilst these rumours were going on there had not been any real confirmation of which team he would sign for. Therefore, it would be wise to keep such a player whilst the demand continues to increase as the rumours continue to appear. It would then be wise to sell such a player just before or just after the signing has been confirmed. Traders love speculation and once the speculation phase of a trade is partly over (in this case the speculation is based on who will he sign for) then it is often wise to sell. Buy the rumour, sell the news.
If a player's price has not moved for a while, maybe because they have not been featuring much for a team or have not been in the media yet, but, has clear potential - then it is often wise to keep the player. The opposite is also true, if a player is gaining a lot of attention then it can be wise to sell. Unless you need to free up cash, I find it is almost always best to keep young players in my portfolio if they have not increased substantially yet. Take William Saliba as an example. I first purchased Saliba for 43p and he had not been playing regularly for St Etienne at this time. Even though he had not been playing, he seemed great value at such a low price at just 43p. In this instance, patience was key and he went on to get game time for St Etienne and post some high PB scores too. These good performances then led him to be linked to bigger teams such as Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal. If I had have sold Saliba in the first few months when his price wasn't moving and he wasn't getting game time then I would have lost out on a lot of potential profit. Patience in this instance was key.
Below are a few factors that can be considered when selling a player:
Are more people currently buying or selling the player?
If more traders are selling the player then it will be hard to market sell and the player's price may have already dropped and so often in this situation it would be best to hold the player.
Are there reasons for the player's price to continue to increase?
If there is going to be further speculation surrounding a player being in a better position to earn future dividends then it is often best to hold the player until just before the speculation is over.
Do I still value the player at X price?
If you have already seen your player increase a substantial amount then it may be worth considering if you would still purchase the player at their new price. The same goes for if a player's circumstances have now changed and you may value them at a lower price then the one you purchased at when the player's circumstances were different.
Could I use the money from a sale better elsewhere?
If you have spotted a player you are confident will have a massive increase and you are not in a position to deposit more then it may be wise to sell a player that you do not see a rise for in the near future to purchase a player you are confident will rise shortly. I would only recommend doing this if you are very confident in this player's price increasing to an extent to which it covers the commission of the sale that was made to fund the new player.
What is the current market sentiment?
If the market as a whole is booming, such as in the bonus period, then it may be a good time to sell some players to the market (If you do not value them at their increased price any longer). It would then be wise to use these funds to buy other players that you feel have more potential to increase in price. The opposite goes for when more traders are selling the buying, this is often a bad time to sell. Unless you need to withdraw funds, I would consider just after the bonus period has ended being a bad time to sell.
One final thing to be said on selling a player is that it is nearly impossible to always sell at a peak price and if you do manage this, often the player's price will surpass this peak again in the future. Avoid selling too frequently as you can get stung by commission, consider selling some and not all of your shares, remain patient and calm if a player has taken a substantial drop that may recover and aim for profit not perfection.