5X IPD Payouts, where's the value?

Football Index have increased In-Play Dividends by a huge 5 times for every eligible fixture until 30/09/20.


Although we have seen a number of player's prices already increase in price due to the increased In-Play Dividend payouts, there are still plenty of opportunties throughout the market.


The majority of players that could benefit massively from this promotion are yet to rise in price and many still have wide spreads which could be taken advantage of.


It is likely that we will see increased spending on potentially strong IPD holds over the upcoming weeks/months as the market starts to prepare for the start of the 2020/2021 season.


Football Index Club Research into IPD holds


As usual, the raw data to make this research possible was found using the extremely useful Index Edge Spreadsheet. To gain access to this, you can sign up for a two week, free trial to Index Edge here.


I then removed most of the columns that will not help us find strong IPD holds and added many new columns/formulas to the spreadsheets.


The spreadsheet shows us how much players would have earned in IPD if we had 5X IPD since the start of the season. There are further considerations when using this data which are explained further below, but this does provide us a useful overview of which players could possibly return a considerable amount of their price in IPD alone due to this generous summer promotion.


In-Play Dividends Excel Spreadsheet


5X IPD Yield
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 383KB

In-Play Dividends Google Spreadsheet


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ogxB492g50IRAn__nnWT_415TNYuP4ys_4RTNXi9A18/edit?usp=sharing


Key Considerations


There are a number of considerations which need to be taken into account before assuming a player is worth buying based on the spreadsheet above. Many of which may be stating the obvious, but may still be worth taking into account.


Firstly, it is worth pointing out that what has happened in the past may not translate to what will happen in the future. The dividiend yields that many lower priced players could return in IPD could be very high over the upcoming months, however, it is important to consider the wide spreads of many of these players.


Therefore, it may only be worth buying the stand out players via matched bids as it could be difficult to sell lower priced players at market prices in the future. As always, considering if there will be buyers of your shares in the future is crucial and the demand for IPD players may start to wear off once we get into September.


Just because a player may represent excellent value in terms of their potential IPD return, there will of course be no point in buying the player if their IPD return and future sale price fails to cover the commission and purchase price paid.


Further considerations:

  • How many fixtures will the player be playing in during the 5X IPD promotion?

  • Will the player be playing in the Champions/Europa League?

  • How old is the player?

  • How likely are they to also earn match day dividends?

  • What is their IPD per game yield (Based on the 5X Promotion)

  • Why would another trader buy the player after the IPD promotion?

  • Lower priced players have better IPD dividend yields

At first glance, we can see some of the higher priced players on the platform having very strong IPD per game (Under the 5X Promtion) statistics as can be seen below.

However, despite these very high IPD per game statistics, it is lower priced players who have the highest IPD yields per game.


Therefore, the highlighted players below are mostly at low prices. Of course there is currently some concern over the ability to sell lower priced players due to a lack of liqudidity, but given the potential IPD yields on offer and the incoming introduction of Phase 2 of the Matching Engine - this may not be such a problem for the players mentioned below.


Key Players


From analysing the results of this spreadsheet and taking the above considerations into account, players with the below characteristics could be worth considering.

  • Under 27

  • Play majority of their team's games

  • Ligue 1 players

  • Have a strong chance of earning match day dividends in the future

  • 3%+ average IPD yield

As many Champions/Europa League players have already risen in price and we could see their spreads widen following knock-outs, Ligue 1 players may be the best picks ahead of next month.


Below are a few Ligue 1 players that stand out from this spreadsheet and my own further research.


Bingourou Kamara


At first I wrote down Matz Sels above, but having looked into Strasbourg's goalkeeping position further, it turns out that Sels is currently out injured and Kamara has been covering instead. Sels' average IPD yield per game is an impressive 5.49% and with Kamara being both younger and at a lower price, he may be an even better short term pick.

Bingourou Kamara

Kamara is a 23 year old goalkeeper for Strasbourg and at the current market price of £0.22, he could be a valubale hold. Strasbourg play Lorient and Dijon within the 30 day IPD window with their first game against Lorient on 23rd August. With just one clean sheet out of the 5 fixtures that Kamara is likely to play in during the IPD promotion, he will return 22.2% of his price.


As long as Kamara is sold before Sels' return from injury, it is likely he could be sold close to his market price. Longer term, he may also be a strong hold as he is at a very low price for a 23-year-old goalkeeper. The greatest concern of course is that Sels returns from injury and Kamara's spread widens.


Lebo Mothiba


Next we have another Strasbourg player to join Kamara above and the recently highlighted Adrien Thomasson. Mothiba is a 24 year old center forward with a current market price of £0.40 and instant sell price of £0.25.

Lebo Mothiba

Mothiba has an average 4.76% IPD yield per game under the 5X IPD promotion. The greatest concern with Mothiba is his lack of game time, but last season that was partly due to returning from AFCON and he looks set to play more in the 2020-2021 season.


Mothiba recently won and converted the winning penalty against Nimes in pre-season and if he remains penalty taker next season, he could return a huge amount of his price in IPD next season, especially during the IPD promotion.


Gaetan Laborde


Laborde is a center forward for Montpellier. Laborde scored 6 goals and provided 5 assists in the 2019-2020 season and managed a total of 16 goal contributions in the previous season suggesting he has strong IPD potential. With an IPD yield per game of 4.09%, Laborde could be a very strong short term hold ahead of the return of Ligue 1.

Gaetan Laborde

Laborde currently has a market price of £0.48 and an instant sell price of £0.34 and so it is likely that he could be purchased at a considerable discount on his market price via a matched bid.


As we get closer to the return of Ligue 1, it would be unsurprising to see his spread tighten up.


Irvin Cardona


At a current market price of £0.71, Cardona may not be the most valuable hold given his very low PB scores. However, he did have a strong season for Brest with a total of 10 goal contributions in just 23 games.

Irvin Cardona

Furthermore, Cardona is the youngest of the players in this blog at the age of 22 and has an average IPD yield per game of 3.76%.


Cardona's current instant sell price is £0.49 and so it is likely that bids would be matched at much below £0.71. Cardona could be both a strong short and longer term hold.


Adrien Hunou


Hunou is a center forward for Rennes. Hunou ended his Ligue 1 season with a brace to take his goal tally for the season up to 8. Hunou averaged a goal once every 151 minutes and with Rennes also playing in the Champions League next season, Hunou will have even more opportunities to score.


Adrien Hunou

Hunou currently has a market price of £0.48 with an instant sell price of £0.37 and this relatively tight spread suggests there is already a fair amount of demand for Hunou, but he could still be purchased below his market price via a matched bid.


With a 3.86% IPD yield per game, Hunou may well increase in price ahead of the season and could rise further during the Champions League group stages.

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